Liverpool FC Forum

by **kazza** » Thu Dec 10, 2009 7:32 am

big al wrote:He's an anorak that's it in a nutshell. An Anorak who thinks tha he came apply formulas to winning the premiership. wot pure sh1t

I'd watch what you say mate considering most on here are Anoraks :laugh:

by **Owzat** » Thu Dec 10, 2009 8:34 am

While we are gutted to be out of the CL, statistically our worst points tally isn't something I would use against him. I couldn't care less about the CL, it is the fact that we're already set to have nothing to show for our season and we're not even into January. We might win the FA Cup, we might win the Europa League, we might even recover and get back into the CL next season, but the way it is going we are in a real :censored:

state. I've seen Rafa's interview on SSN already today, when asked if we were "progressing" I'm sure he cited the returning players as evidence! Even HE subscribes to the popular myth that our season is being destroyed by injuries, even though Torres has played 14 out of 23 (61%), Benayoun 23 out of 23 (100%), Gerrard 18/23 (78%) and the only games Reina, Kuyt and Carra have missed are down to suspension and choice. Mascherano missed just four games, including game(s) missed for his red card, Johnson has missed two league games only. Agger has had injury problems for a while, he played just 18 games last season and has already played nine this. Aquilani was bought injured and hasn't played much, whether fit or not that isn't an injury sustained playing for us so Rafa took that risk in purchase.

So basically the "injury crisis" is because Torres has missed some games and Gerrard a few, with everyone knowing we can be a lot less effective without. But here's a comparison with last season when we were playing well enough for Rafa's neck not to be on the line

Appearances

Gerrard - 08/09 = 44/55 (80.00%) vs 09/10 = 18/23 (78.26%)
Torres : 08/09 = 38/55 (69.09%) vs 09/10 = 14/23 (60.87%)

So not a lot in it, slightly less Torres than last season but Rafa CHOSE not to bring in back-up strikers just as he CHOSE not to in January when he offloaded Keane and declared we didn't need back-up. Instead he 'invested' £20m in a CM who he's only just decided is fit to start, a calculated gamble that has cost him most of his chips and he's now trying to beg, steal or borrow some more (time)

So even now he's adamant we're 'progressing'. There are too many similarities with Houllier and the 2002/03 season when we got knocked out of the CL and dropped into the then UEFA Cup, although we did start that season well in the league we had a dreadful run of ELEVEN games without a win but Houllier survived another season to do nothing he hadn't previously.............................. They say lessons can be learned from history, some refuse to ever learn and that includes Rafa and HIS supporters. And I mean recent history as well as past history, you can either view 08/09 as "progress" or as a "one-off", he's yet to have to two 80+ points finishes in a row and we're now looking at one of our lowest points tallies under him. We lost nine games in 07/08, we've already lost nine this.

RAFA DEFEATS BY SEASON

04/05 : 19 in 60 (31.67%)
05/06 : 11 in 62 (17.74%)
06/07 : 16 in 58 (27.59%)
07/08 : 9 in 59 (15.25%)
08/09 : 5 in 55 (9.09%)
09/10 : 9 in 23 (39.13%)

So we're well on course for 20 defeats this season, could well happen with Arsenal away, Man Utd and Man City away, any tough away tie (or even home) in the UEFA Cup, Arsenal and Chelsea to visit Anfield and any club of the level of Sunderland, villa or Fulham (away). Our start of two defeats in the first three was followed by six straight wins in all competitions but now we're in a run of just THREE wins in 14 games and that includes opponents like Sunderland, Fulham, Debrecen, bitters, brum, Blackburn, Fiorentina and Lyon in games we would usually expect to see twice as many wins or more. Was last night's defeat a surprise? Not really. Same late substitutions, same inability to defend, same inability to score more than one goal

GOALS FOR 09/10

0 goals : P4 W0 D1 L3 F0 A5 (Won 0.00%)
1 goal : P10 W3 D1 L6 F10 A15 (Won 30.00%)
2 goals : P4 W2 D2 L0 F8 A12 (Won 50.00%)
3+ goals : P5 W5 D0 L0 F20 A5 (Won 100.00%)

GOALS AGAINST 09/10

0 goals : P8 W7 D1 L0 F15 A0 (Won 87.50%)
1 goal : P3 W1 D1 L1 F7 A1 (Won 33.33%)
2 goals : P10 W2 D6 L2 F14 A20 (Won 20.00%)
3+ goals : P2 W0 D0 L2 F2 A6 (Won 0.00%)

We've won only three games 1-0 so for me the emphasis is on scoring more than defending. Concede three and you expect to lose, concede two and you can't be sure of one point let alone three, but if you concede one or less then the best way to win is to score twice and we're not doing that enough. In 14 games we've failed to score more than one goal, that is a terrible record. When we score two or more we win 77.77% which is good enough form to win the league, but interestingly under Rafa our overall split is near exactly split down that divide

GOALS FOR UNDER RAFA

0-1 goals : P158 W38 D56 L64 F85 A137 (Won 24.05%)
2+ goals : P159 W139 D15 L5 F454 A140 (Won 87.42%)

The difference between scoring one goal and two is massive, when we score one we win only 44.71% but when we score two we win 79.45% I know some on here want us to be Arsenal-esque and win 1-0, or at least tighten up so we keep more clean sheets, but to do that we'd have to play more defensively and also you can't guarantee a clean sheet, you can't stop deflections etc and we're simply not going to suddenly become the tightest defence from where we're at now. We can do more to "score one more than you", even the best defences concede goals but the team that scores most goals generally has a better chance of winning the league than the teams that don't.

PREMIERSHIP CHAMPIONS BY GOALS FOR RANKING

1st/most goals : 10/17 (58.82%)
2nd/2nd most goals : 6/17 (35.29%)
3rd/3rd most goals : 1/17 (5.89%)

PREMIERSHIP CHAMPIONS BY GOALS AGAINST RANKING

1st/least goals : 8/17 (47.06%)
2nd/2nd least goals : 3/17 (17.65%)
3rd/3rd least goals : 2/17 (11.76%)
4th/4th least goals : 2/17 (11.76%)
6th/6th least goals : 1/17 (5.89%)
7th/7th least goals : 1/17 (5.89%)

Percentages in goals against are to 2dp if any clever d i c k decides to add them up to 100.01% (it happens occaisionally with rounding) So conceding the least goals doesn't help much, clean sheets will but sides that score goals do better than those that concede less

by **Scottbot** » Thu Dec 10, 2009 8:41 am

A lot of posters in this thread are talking as if last nights loss was another MASSIVE nail in the managers coffin which I find a bit laughable. It was a nothing game played by a dissapointed and underwelmed team in front of a dissapointed and underwelmed crowd. Things were bad before the game but lets not pretend they have all of sudden got so much worse as a result of this game, they still would have been as bad had we won the game. Big one at the weekend against Arsenal and we need to win it.

Glad to see Torres back, I don't think we've ever needed a player back as much him right now.

by **Judge** » Thu Dec 10, 2009 9:20 am

two things, 3 wins in 14 !!

no victory last night.

Unable to put chances away

we look weak and totally vulnerable

rafa should be sent packing, and i blame supersub

by **bigmick** » Thu Dec 10, 2009 9:21 am

Brilliant post that Owz, some really interesting stuff there.

by **bigmick** » Thu Dec 10, 2009 9:23 am

In all honesty, if the players took part in Dundalks poll on "stay or go" for the manager, and they were allowed to vote under a nom de plume and in secret, how do you think the majority would vote?

I am absolutely convinced looking at the mood of the players, the body language, our lack of passion and the rest that the players would vote overwhelmingly for a change of manager.

by **Judge** » Thu Dec 10, 2009 9:34 am

bigmick wrote:Brilliant post that judge, some really interesting and truthful stuff there.

cheers

by **bigmick** » Thu Dec 10, 2009 9:35 am

That's Ok mate

by **access** » Thu Dec 10, 2009 9:53 am

I agree interesting reading from Owzat and spot on from Judge

Just a couple of things I see that on SSN they interviewed Masch and he was non commital on signing a new contract.

Rafa says the exit from CL will make them concentrate on the Premiership.

I wondered why Rafa didnt play a number of up and coming 'young' talent he is aparently bringing on through the ranks?

by **Judge** » Thu Dec 10, 2009 9:54 am

access wrote:I agree interesting reading from Owzat and spot on from Judge

by **loopyliverpool** » Thu Dec 10, 2009 9:55 am

I cannot stand those long, tedious stats lists and always jump them cos we are doing :censored:

and that is that really. Anyway last night we were still playing for 'pride' and could have boosted our very low confidence with a good display and a victory! What a shame we wake up to another woeful display against an average Italian side... the rot seems to have taken hold. The saviour, Aquilani, was largely annonymous... the future is looking very bleak indeed. Having advocated we keep Rafa until the end of the season I'm now seriously thinking not. If someone of the calibre of Hiddink is available lets cut our losses and make a move!

by **access** » Thu Dec 10, 2009 9:55 am

Judge wrote:
access wrote:I agree interesting reading from Owzat and spot on from Judge

I mean it

by **Ben Patrick** » Thu Dec 10, 2009 10:05 am

Scottbot wrote:A lot of posters in this thread are talking as if last nights loss was another MASSIVE nail in the managers coffin which I find a bit laughable. It was a nothing game played by a dissapointed and underwelmed team in front of a dissapointed and underwelmed crowd. Things were bad before the game but lets not pretend they have all of sudden got so much worse as a result of this game, they still would have been as bad had we won the game. Big one at the weekend against Arsenal and we need to win it.

Glad to see Torres back, I don't think we've ever needed a player back as much him right now.

Scott i disagree mate, last nights game although meaningless was a chance to try and regain a bit of pride.
We have gone out of the champions league with a whimper/
The body language of the players seems to indicate they have virtually given up.
Yes we were already out but Rafa before the game had been talking abour 3 clean sheets and an unbeaten in 6 (i think it was) run.
Well thats another defeat.
We lose games far too easily this season and its a sickening habit to have.
We have lost half of our champions league games, almost half of our league games and also been knocked out of the carling cup.

Some might blame the players who looked totally uninterested last night, but its the managers job to motivate them.

With each game it becomes less and less likely that he will be able to turn it round.

Been saying it for weeks, this is like Houlliers final season.

We used to love him once n all.

by **Judge** » Thu Dec 10, 2009 10:07 am

access wrote:
Judge wrote:
access wrote:I agree interesting reading from Owzat and spot on from Judge

I mean it

cheers

mods sorry for the small russian doll posts

by **The_Rock** » Thu Dec 10, 2009 10:20 am

Owzat wrote:While we are gutted to be out of the CL, statistically our worst points tally isn't something I would use against him. I couldn't care less about the CL, it is the fact that we're already set to have nothing to show for our season and we're not even into January. We might win the FA Cup, we might win the Europa League, we might even recover and get back into the CL next season, but the way it is going we are in a real state. I've seen Rafa's interview on SSN already today, when asked if we were "progressing" I'm sure he cited the returning players as evidence! Even HE subscribes to the popular myth that our season is being destroyed by injuries, even though Torres has played 14 out of 23 (61%), Benayoun 23 out of 23 (100%), Gerrard 18/23 (78%) and the only games Reina, Kuyt and Carra have missed are down to suspension and choice. Mascherano missed just four games, including game(s) missed for his red card, Johnson has missed two league games only. Agger has had injury problems for a while, he played just 18 games last season and has already played nine this. Aquilani was bought injured and hasn't played much, whether fit or not that isn't an injury sustained playing for us so Rafa took that risk in purchase.

So basically the "injury crisis" is because Torres has missed some games and Gerrard a few, with everyone knowing we can be a lot less effective without. But here's a comparison with last season when we were playing well enough for Rafa's neck not to be on the line

Appearances

Gerrard - 08/09 = 44/55 (80.00%) vs 09/10 = 18/23 (78.26%)
Torres : 08/09 = 38/55 (69.09%) vs 09/10 = 14/23 (60.87%)

So not a lot in it, slightly less Torres than last season but Rafa CHOSE not to bring in back-up strikers just as he CHOSE not to in January when he offloaded Keane and declared we didn't need back-up. Instead he 'invested' £20m in a CM who he's only just decided is fit to start, a calculated gamble that has cost him most of his chips and he's now trying to beg, steal or borrow some more (time)

So even now he's adamant we're 'progressing'. There are too many similarities with Houllier and the 2002/03 season when we got knocked out of the CL and dropped into the then UEFA Cup, although we did start that season well in the league we had a dreadful run of ELEVEN games without a win but Houllier survived another season to do nothing he hadn't previously.............................. They say lessons can be learned from history, some refuse to ever learn and that includes Rafa and HIS supporters. And I mean recent history as well as past history, you can either view 08/09 as "progress" or as a "one-off", he's yet to have to two 80+ points finishes in a row and we're now looking at one of our lowest points tallies under him. We lost nine games in 07/08, we've already lost nine this.

RAFA DEFEATS BY SEASON

04/05 : 19 in 60 (31.67%)
05/06 : 11 in 62 (17.74%)
06/07 : 16 in 58 (27.59%)
07/08 : 9 in 59 (15.25%)
08/09 : 5 in 55 (9.09%)
09/10 : 9 in 23 (39.13%)

So we're well on course for 20 defeats this season, could well happen with Arsenal away, Man Utd and Man City away, any tough away tie (or even home) in the UEFA Cup, Arsenal and Chelsea to visit Anfield and any club of the level of Sunderland, villa or Fulham (away). Our start of two defeats in the first three was followed by six straight wins in all competitions but now we're in a run of just THREE wins in 14 games and that includes opponents like Sunderland, Fulham, Debrecen, bitters, brum, Blackburn, Fiorentina and Lyon in games we would usually expect to see twice as many wins or more. Was last night's defeat a surprise? Not really. Same late substitutions, same inability to defend, same inability to score more than one goal

GOALS FOR 09/10

0 goals : P4 W0 D1 L3 F0 A5 (Won 0.00%)
1 goal : P10 W3 D1 L6 F10 A15 (Won 30.00%)
2 goals : P4 W2 D2 L0 F8 A12 (Won 50.00%)
3+ goals : P5 W5 D0 L0 F20 A5 (Won 100.00%)

GOALS AGAINST 09/10

0 goals : P8 W7 D1 L0 F15 A0 (Won 87.50%)
1 goal : P3 W1 D1 L1 F7 A1 (Won 33.33%)
2 goals : P10 W2 D6 L2 F14 A20 (Won 20.00%)
3+ goals : P2 W0 D0 L2 F2 A6 (Won 0.00%)

We've won only three games 1-0 so for me the emphasis is on scoring more than defending. Concede three and you expect to lose, concede two and you can't be sure of one point let alone three, but if you concede one or less then the best way to win is to score twice and we're not doing that enough. In 14 games we've failed to score more than one goal, that is a terrible record. When we score two or more we win 77.77% which is good enough form to win the league, but interestingly under Rafa our overall split is near exactly split down that divide

GOALS FOR UNDER RAFA

0-1 goals : P158 W38 D56 L64 F85 A137 (Won 24.05%)
2+ goals : P159 W139 D15 L5 F454 A140 (Won 87.42%)

The difference between scoring one goal and two is massive, when we score one we win only 44.71% but when we score two we win 79.45% I know some on here want us to be Arsenal-esque and win 1-0, or at least tighten up so we keep more clean sheets, but to do that we'd have to play more defensively and also you can't guarantee a clean sheet, you can't stop deflections etc and we're simply not going to suddenly become the tightest defence from where we're at now. We can do more to "score one more than you", even the best defences concede goals but the team that scores most goals generally has a better chance of winning the league than the teams that don't.

PREMIERSHIP CHAMPIONS BY GOALS FOR RANKING

1st/most goals : 10/17 (58.82%)
2nd/2nd most goals : 6/17 (35.29%)
3rd/3rd most goals : 1/17 (5.89%)

PREMIERSHIP CHAMPIONS BY GOALS AGAINST RANKING

1st/least goals : 8/17 (47.06%)
2nd/2nd least goals : 3/17 (17.65%)
3rd/3rd least goals : 2/17 (11.76%)
4th/4th least goals : 2/17 (11.76%)
6th/6th least goals : 1/17 (5.89%)
7th/7th least goals : 1/17 (5.89%)

Percentages in goals against are to 2dp if any clever d i c k decides to add them up to 100.01% (it happens occaisionally with rounding) So conceding the least goals doesn't help much, clean sheets will but sides that score goals do better than those that concede less

To summarise for owzat........in a nutshell...benitez should go...

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Sack him. if you want the manager sacked - ...put your thoughts in here.

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