Liverpool FC Forum

by **bigmick** » Wed Oct 07, 2009 9:54 pm

Obviously we've had a sticky start, but I don't think we are (quite) out of the title race yet. It won't be easy to win it mind, "early days" or not.

Our task is that we have 30 games left, and we have to give Chelsea a six point start and the Mancs a four point start. Also in the case of the mancs they've had harder fixtures than us so far. I'm discounting for now Arsenal (we have to give them a game in hand start) and Man City (we have to give them a point start and a game in hand). But looking at man Utd and Chelsea, obviously from here it won't be easy. I've long said if you get MORE THAN SIX points behind both man Utd and Chelsea it is all over, we are one defeat away in all probability.

So what if we don't win it? I've heard it said that if we don't win it Rafa should go, and I don't agree with that. Winning it is hard, there are strong contenders. Is it though legitimate to ask for a credible challenge, or are we expecting too much? Does the fact that we sold Alonso and Arbeloa (even thoguh we replaced them Johnson and Aquilani) mean that it is unrealistic to expect a challenge, and as such is Rafa absolved from responsibility? What if we don't challenge but we do break our 3 season trophy drought by winning a cup?

I have noticed people getting their possible explanations/excuses in nice and early this season, and I was just wondering what everyone was hoping for or indeed expecting.

For my part, I think we need to be up there and challenging properly. If we slip by the wayside and end up more than 9 points off the pace thenit will convince me even more that Rafa isn't the man to take us to the summit. If on the other hand we are in with a sniff for most of the way and can win a cup (which is what I think will happen) then no doubt the six year plan will become a seven year one without too many grumbles. If we win the Champions League I guess we start negotiating the new contract, although obviously that wouldn't be my choice.

Anyhow what do you think, what is actually good enough this season?

by **baldricks_cunning_plan** » Wed Oct 07, 2009 10:39 pm

The only thing good enough for this club is, as it always has been, is first.

Lets not forget we had our bad years to, we finished second once. That's the benchmark.

by **Scottbot** » Wed Oct 07, 2009 10:40 pm

I simply want to be challenging for the league every season, we managed it last season for the first time in gods knows how long last season and I think it is reasonable to expect it again this season. As for Europe, I must admit i've become very unenthusiastic about the Champions League, I guess it's down to the fact we've done very well the past 5 years and also because the group stages have become much like world cup qualifiers (ie. boring as fook). I'd like to see the lads have a decent run in the two domestic cups (especially the FA Cup) this season coz it's been a while since we've done much on those fronts but the priority is obviously the league.

Can't be arsed with all the 'what if we don't win it? What should happen to Rafa? What if we don't challenge rubbish coz it (almost) always stirs up arguments on here.

by **JC_81** » Wed Oct 07, 2009 10:47 pm

For me the minimum we should expect this season is to again be in with a shout of still winning it come April time and to finish no lower than top 3. On paper United and Chelsea have better squads than us imo and if we don't manage to finish ahead of them then it is no shame. I'd say that on paper Man City also have a better squad than us, although they still have a bit of gelling to do and I'd still take our best XI over theirs or Arsenal's for that matter.

Worse than that is a step backwards imo. Rafa had options this summer as to what he could have done with the Alonso money. He chose to buy Aquilani who he knew would be out injured and he chose not to strengthen the forward line. He also chose to spend 17 million on a right back. In his defence Johnson has looked better than I ever thought he would and Aquilani may yet turn out to be a gem, but overall only at the end of the season will we know whether he spent that money on the right positions and on the right personnel.

Ultimately how we do this season is down to Benitez. If we do well then he deserves credit, but if we don't then he has to take the criticism, that's the way it goes. One thing I will say in his defence though is that Steven Gerrard has not been at the races at all this season and I don't believe there's much Benitez could have done about it. We know Gerrard is a complex individual and I can't help but think that this court case has affected him more than any of us thought it would. Without his captain and best player on his game, I think we have to be careful how much we criticise Benitez himself for our early season form.

I think we'll come top 3, but we've had too bad a start and have too weak a squad to go all the way imo. Trouble is that without investment it will only be worse next season. It's hard to focus on the positives at the moment, but a win against Sunderland and we'll all feel a bit better.

by **Dazzer** » Wed Oct 07, 2009 10:53 pm

I just can't see us performing as well as we like in the league untill behind the scenes is fixed.Once that happens we really can see how Rafa can work with out the stress of having not only having to battle prem teams week in week out but also battling his owners.

If after that he keeps underperforming then it might be best for him and us to split but I think we owe him at least that untill then.

As for this season I am not so confident as some of you we can turn this around yes if we do well vrs the smaller teams we have a chance but remember the mancs are already performing better this season then last and so too chelsea.So it begs the question have we lost too many points already in a league that never gives you any thing for free.

by **account deleted by request** » Wed Oct 07, 2009 11:03 pm

I think we need to win "something". Even the League cup would be a step in the right direction. So I suppose a good enough season would be top 4 in the league (which I think we will get). A decent run in the CL to the quarters or Semi (which I hope we will get) and a cup (which we are more than due). If we finish more than 6 points or so off the top I will be disappointed, but in truth as long as we qualify for the CL I THINK RAFA's JOB IS AS SAFE AS HOUSES.

I think we should be looking for a little bit better than that in all honesty. We should be expecting a STRONG title challenge, and hoping for a CL win, but I think our future in both will be decided very early this season. Beat the mancs and things will start to look much brighter, beat Lyon and the defeat against the Italians becomes "just a blip". Draw or lose both and that hill just became much steeper and maybe too much for us to climb.

I just hate the thought that the mancs may overtake our number of titles this season. So if we can't win it......... anybody but the mancs will do!

by **Effes** » Wed Oct 07, 2009 11:29 pm

s@int wrote:I just hate the thought that the mancs may overtake our number of titles this season. So if we can't win it......... anybody but the mancs will do!

Indeed... Chelsea may be our saviours there.

I've got a feeling that most people's idea of what's good enough will not be met this season.

I think we've got a "Crunch Time" coming up over the next few weeks' fixtures
and with our performances so far this season, I'm not confident.

We've got Sunderland away, Man U, Fulham away in the league; Arsenal away in thee Carling Cup
and Lyon home and away in the Champs League.

I'm praying Fiorentina balls up at some point.

All I ask is, at some point after Xmas, to actually BELIEVE we will win some silverware, rather than hope.

I wont quantify that though, as you always get someone picking holes in it.

by **Reg** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 12:17 am

Realistically...... we'll be lucky to make top 4 this season.

by **Dazzer** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 12:55 am

s@int wrote:I think we need to win "something". Even the League cup would be a step in the right direction. So I suppose a good enough season would be top 4 in the league (which I think we will get). A decent run in the CL to the quarters or Semi (which I hope we will get) and a cup (which we are more than due). If we finish more than 6 points or so off the top I will be disappointed, but in truth as long as we qualify for the CL I THINK RAFA's JOB IS AS SAFE AS HOUSES.

I think we should be looking for a little bit better than that in all honesty. We should be expecting a STRONG title challenge, and hoping for a CL win, but I think our future in both will be decided very early this season. Beat the mancs and things will start to look much brighter, beat Lyon and the defeat against the Italians becomes "just a blip". Draw or lose both and that hill just became much steeper and maybe too much for us to climb.

I just hate the thought that the mancs may overtake our number of titles this season. So if we can't win it......... anybody but the mancs will do!

Part of me tho saint I know this sounds bad hopes we don't make CL this season just so those 2 yanks lose loads of money on this club.Its might not be such a bad thing 1 year out of it.Might give us 100% focus on the league and get rid of owners.

Tbph I never thought I think like this but maybe its just my mood today feeling low and all that.

by **Tim LFC** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:14 am

For me we can still contend. I believe we could of won Chelsea since half of our team weren't even :censored:

playing. Had our wingers been better it would of brought Torres and Gerrard more into the game allowing Johnson into the game allowing us to attack. I think we are lacking 1 or 2 key players to win the league but having said that our teams performance hasn't been good much so the only way i can see us is going up! Agger and Aquilain, regardless of how well he fits in straight away because we know is quality should offer some morale. It perhaps should stimulate Lucas to improve and perform better. Agger coming in will make Skrter and Carragher improve because there place is not certain now. Agger and Aquilani will bring in competition and that will only be a good thing. For Kuyt hasn't been that good so far and Babel has been more impessive. With this break we have it should allow Rafa to think about the future of this season. IMHO making sure Agger and Aquilani return fit and healthy is the most important thing.

by **account deleted by request** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:23 am

Dazzer wrote:
s@int wrote:I think we need to win "something". Even the League cup would be a step in the right direction. So I suppose a good enough season would be top 4 in the league (which I think we will get). A decent run in the CL to the quarters or Semi (which I hope we will get) and a cup (which we are more than due). If we finish more than 6 points or so off the top I will be disappointed, but in truth as long as we qualify for the CL I THINK RAFA's JOB IS AS SAFE AS HOUSES.

I think we should be looking for a little bit better than that in all honesty. We should be expecting a STRONG title challenge, and hoping for a CL win, but I think our future in both will be decided very early this season. Beat the mancs and things will start to look much brighter, beat Lyon and the defeat against the Italians becomes "just a blip". Draw or lose both and that hill just became much steeper and maybe too much for us to climb.

I just hate the thought that the mancs may overtake our number of titles this season. So if we can't win it......... anybody but the mancs will do!

Part of me tho saint I know this sounds bad hopes we don't make CL this season just so those 2 yanks lose loads of money on this club.Its might not be such a bad thing 1 year out of it.Might give us 100% focus on the league and get rid of owners.

Tbph I never thought I think like this but maybe its just my mood today feeling low and all that.

I understand just how you feel mate, but I think its going to take more than failure to qualify for the CL for one season to flush those two down the toilet. Yes it may make them struggle for cash, but they have seen the pot of gold and the dream and they won't go quietly into the night.

The club's matchday revenues totalled £39.2 million last season, according to Deloitte, while, by comparison, Manchester United earned £101.5 million and Arsenal £94.6 million. Even Chelsea, like Liverpool seeking a move to a new stadium, earned £74.5 million.

I would expect that once the stadium is built we would be looking at around £90million per season, a £50million increase.

That's the reason that they are clinging on like grim death. They can either sell the dream and take their cut now or hang in there and hit the mother lode. Our TV rights brought in record profits of over £50million last year, next year they will be even higher, and there is always the distant possibility of negotiating our own deal when profits would skyrocket.

The league's international rights have been an ever-more lucrative revenue stream for the top clubs. Last year, Manchester United and Liverpool topped the list of television earnings, with the Premier League champions collecting UK£51.5 million. Liverpool also broke the UK£50 million mark, albeit narrowly, collecting UK£50.1 million. Both clubs can expect those amounts to increase next year when the new rights cycle begins.

That is why they are willing to sell assets elsewhere rather than here, that is why they want partners rather than a quick sale, and that is why we are stuck with them.

They are like a monkey with its hand stuck in the cookie jar. They just cant let go even though they can't get to the cookie. Sadly it is usually the jar that gets smashed.

Sorry to go off topic

by **bigmick** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 1:47 am

I agree with those that say we really ought to be able to challenge. If we don't, then who's fault is?

See as I've said before, we can't have it both ways, although I know we'd like to sometimes. If the "golden opportunity" theory is actually total nonsense in that our rivals were just as strong last season as they always are, and if we weren't "lucky" and it wasn't a "flash in the pan", then by definition surely we ought to be able to challenge again.

Now I know people are talking of our financial outlay being insufficient, but if our team was able to challenge last season, why shouldn't it this time around with a like for like replacement for Alonso (supposedly a better replacement according to the manager) and Glen Johnson for Arbeloa, who pretty much everyone I should think would accept is a better player. Allied to that, you've got the often used reason/excuse for us not winning it last season that Torres was unavailable, whereas this season he's played in every match.

Now if you'd said to most fans last season that if Man Utd were to lose Ronaldo and Tevez, before replaceing them with Valencia and Owen, most I think would have expected us to overtake them this season (given we were only four points behind last time). Ronaldo is arguably the best player in the World, whereas Valencia isn't. Equally, Tevez is worth 25 million quid, whereas Owen isn't. What of Arsenal? If someone had told you they were about to sell Adebayor and Toure, while buying a centre half from Holland I should think most would have expected us to finish well ahead of them again.

We may well do so of course (finsih ahead of Arsenal), and if money is truly the be all and end all then surely we will. Similarly with the Mancs, maybe we will sprint past them and all will be good. On the other hand of course, maybe we won't. Should be an interesting season.

by **Dazzer** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 2:39 am

s@int wrote:
Dazzer wrote:
s@int wrote:I think we need to win "something". Even the League cup would be a step in the right direction. So I suppose a good enough season would be top 4 in the league (which I think we will get). A decent run in the CL to the quarters or Semi (which I hope we will get) and a cup (which we are more than due). If we finish more than 6 points or so off the top I will be disappointed, but in truth as long as we qualify for the CL I THINK RAFA's JOB IS AS SAFE AS HOUSES.

I think we should be looking for a little bit better than that in all honesty. We should be expecting a STRONG title challenge, and hoping for a CL win, but I think our future in both will be decided very early this season. Beat the mancs and things will start to look much brighter, beat Lyon and the defeat against the Italians becomes "just a blip". Draw or lose both and that hill just became much steeper and maybe too much for us to climb.

I just hate the thought that the mancs may overtake our number of titles this season. So if we can't win it......... anybody but the mancs will do!

Part of me tho saint I know this sounds bad hopes we don't make CL this season just so those 2 yanks lose loads of money on this club.Its might not be such a bad thing 1 year out of it.Might give us 100% focus on the league and get rid of owners.

Tbph I never thought I think like this but maybe its just my mood today feeling low and all that.

I understand just how you feel mate, but I think its going to take more than failure to qualify for the CL for one season to flush those two down the toilet. Yes it may make them struggle for cash, but they have seen the pot of gold and the dream and they won't go quietly into the night.

The club's matchday revenues totalled £39.2 million last season, according to Deloitte, while, by comparison, Manchester United earned £101.5 million and Arsenal £94.6 million. Even Chelsea, like Liverpool seeking a move to a new stadium, earned £74.5 million.

I would expect that once the stadium is built we would be looking at around £90million per season, a £50million increase.

That's the reason that they are clinging on like grim death. They can either sell the dream and take their cut now or hang in there and hit the mother lode. Our TV rights brought in record profits of over £50million last year, next year they will be even higher, and there is always the distant possibility of negotiating our own deal when profits would skyrocket.

The league's international rights have been an ever-more lucrative revenue stream for the top clubs. Last year, Manchester United and Liverpool topped the list of television earnings, with the Premier League champions collecting UK£51.5 million. Liverpool also broke the UK£50 million mark, albeit narrowly, collecting UK£50.1 million. Both clubs can expect those amounts to increase next year when the new rights cycle begins.

That is why they are willing to sell assets elsewhere rather than here, that is why they want partners rather than a quick sale, and that is why we are stuck with them.

They are like a monkey with its hand stuck in the cookie jar. They just cant let go even though they can't get to the cookie. Sadly it is usually the jar that gets smashed.

Sorry to go off topic

Well GG might be gone from club within the month if those reports about him selling soon are any thing to go by but not getting me hopes up.

by **Reg** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 10:38 am

bigmick wrote:I agree with those that say we really ought to be able to challenge. If we don't, then who's fault is?

Thats the 100 million dollar question - and money that would have answered it for you. Rafa had to rebuild after GED, bought mediocre players with the funds available whilst investing in the LFC infrastructure etc.. etc... This has been the most cash intensive period of the clubs history ever, hence Moores sold out to those he believed could drive us forward. Ahemmm.

So in very big picture terms we ran out of money, no player budget, no stadium, little momentum worsened by the fact ManUre and Chelsea remain strong, Arsenal hang on and now Man City spring from no where. We also had a very weak Coco running the commercial side of the business.

If I have to pin the blame on a single issue from which all evil is derived - we ran out of money. Its the owners. and I say that in a very matter of fact, unbiased way. The big picture business plan imploded.

by **loopyliverpool** » Thu Oct 08, 2009 10:48 am

For me the team has hugely missed Alonso's creativity/ingenuity/control etc. etc... And for those who watched Match of the Day 2 Lee Dixon did a marvellous piece on him last weekend where he showed the influence Alonso had on the team and in particular the way he gave Gerrard the opportunity to play to his best. It is no coincidence that Gerrard's best form came alongside Alonso, he never quite hits the same peaks for England for example and well this season, although still our best player, he hasn't been as dominant. I would also say Carra has been well below par, as has Skrtel and you have to question Johnson's defensive capabilities. I obviously hope Aquilani proves to be an exceptional buy because we need a player of quality to change and freshen things up cos we look predictable and lack ideas in the last quarter of the field. At this point in time I would be happy with a top four finish and anything else would be a bonus.... apologies but that's how bad I see it.

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