Liverpool FC Forum

by **Roger Red Hat** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 10:32 am

ManU - no nancyboy this season, reckon they'll stutter at the start and might take a while to find their form
Chelsee - probably start strong, possibly lead the table with 8 games gone but will obviousley suffer the first defeat of the season when they play us.
LFC - reckon we'll start strong, this could be the season Nando takes the golden boot too as pufta has gone and we seem to be a little more attack minded these days.
Man Sh1ty - dont make me laff. they have a few big names on big wages which cost them big money but they will be as effective as a paper p1ss pot. After 8 games probably be about 6th
Arsneeel - could really click this season, first 4 games could be vital for them

after 8 games...

LFC P:8 W:7 D:1 L:0 PTS:22
CFC P:8 W:6 D:1 L:1 PTS:20
ARS P:8 W:6 D:0 L:2 PTS: 18
MANU P:8 W:5 D:2 L:1 PTS: 17
VILLA P:8 W:5 D:1 L:2 PTS: 16
MANC P:8 W:4 D:1 L:3 PTS: 13

all completely bollox of course :laugh:

by **dawson99** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 10:40 am

this manure stuttering this season could be a bit early to say, Valencia has looked VERY sharp pre-season (i know, only pre-season)

I do think we'll start strong tho. Not bothered about Man city or Arsenal... or cheatski to be honest, its between us and manure again

by **Owzat** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 2:26 pm

bigmick wrote:One for Owzat, how far can you afford to fall behind the leadersd and still win it?

It depends, a lot of the stats you hear like teams being X points ahead and being caught disregard games in hand etc ie are often manipulated to be misrepresentative.

But last season we were what, seven points ahead of the mancs at one point - I think that takes into account same games played (can't check, my records aren't on this PC) - but never much more than three ahead of Chelsea. The only way to make a gap is to keep winning and keep winning, like the mancs do.

Agree re Rafa/Valencia. This isn't la liga, five years ago and what happened in Spain is irrelevant. You have to finish above all other teams, but this is ENGLAND not SPAIN so we have to get ahead of the mancs on 90 points not whatever the Spanish finish on.

Champions - Premiership vs La Liga

Man Utd 90-87 Barcelona
Man Utd 87-85 Real Madrid
Man Utd 89-76 Real Madrid
Chelsea 91-82 Barcelona
Chelsea 95-84 Barcelona

On the 27 wins hypothesis, all five of the last five Premiership champions managed at least 27 wins (between 27 and 29) La Liga was won by Real with just 23 wins in 06/07 and 25 in 04/05 and 05/06 (Barcelona)

If only Internationals could be 5-0 to England over Spain, the Champions of England have a lowest points total of 87 in the last five seasons and reached 90 three times while their Spanish counterparts have managed a maximum of 87 points in the same period. That is amazing considering Barca scored 104 league goals last season, 27 more than Liverpool who were top scorers in England. Does that make La Liga more competitive?

Anyway, it's about time Rafa woke up to this not being La Liga and draws not being good enough. You'd think he'd have twigged a lot sooner than a dozen games from the end of his fifth season in charge, there were plenty of clues around.

by **Owzat** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 2:29 pm

Judge wrote:1. lfc played 7 won 7 21pts
2. chavski played 7 won 6 drawn 1 19pts
3. mancs played 7 won 5 drawn 2 17pts
4. arsenal played 7 won 4 drawn 2 lost 1 14pts
5. man city played 7 won 2 drawn 4 lost 1 10pts

thats what i think

See even in that scenario we're not more than four points ahead of our nearest rivals which just emphasises how important it is to keep winning. I think the mancs won something like 19 out of their last 23 or 25 league games.

by **Madmax** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 7:20 pm

dawson99 wrote:this manure stuttering this season could be a bit early to say, Valencia has looked VERY sharp pre-season (i know, only pre-season)

I do think we'll start strong tho. Not bothered about Man city or Arsenal... or cheatski to be honest, its between us and manure again

Think vidic will be out for a month but that won't make any difference. With mannure they always tend to get a results with any sort of line up and thats what worries me. Soo many 1-0 victories last season. Hoping this season will be a negative one for them and all goes wrong!

by **HacksawJimDuggin** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 7:33 pm

We have to set the pace this year - simple as! If we can play the way we did at the tail end of last year then no one will get near us.

If we can then get through the "dry" period (Nov - Dec) of last year when we drew too many games then we should be in a position to mount a serious challenge. I can't see us going the whole season like we did last year with 2 defeats but I can see us scoring more goals with (hopefully) a fully fit Torres and Gerrard combo which is absolutely key if we are to do anything. If the CL goes well then great but the league has to take priority.

I think it will be between us and Chelski this year.

by **LFC2007** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 7:45 pm

The problem against Wigan was that we lost control of the game, that's what allowed them to get a foothold in the game, and from there the equaliser. It wasn't a case of being more attacking or otherwise up until they equalised; we became sloppy on the ball, we didn't keep a steady rhythm to our passing and we subsequently conceded too much ground and possession to Wigan. The only (cue the 'only'

) criticism on Rafa's part for that one was to remove Gerrard with five minutes remaining. A strange decision but I'd pin the reason for that draw on our inability to control the game in the second half, not because we 'settled for the draw'. The only point you could argue Rafa's cautious nature came into play in that one was after they equalised with about 5min's to play, when Gerrard came off for Keane. Strange, but not the reason we failed to see the game out.

The Arsenal game was different because we had laid the foundations to get a second and although we did create some good opportunities late on, I agree we could've forced it a bit more at times. With no Torres or Alonso it wasn't a bad result though and not one I'd hold aloft as an exemplar of a costly draw.

by **Simari** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 7:52 pm

Looking forward to the season, but with the late departure of Alonso, I'm not confident of a fast start.

For some reason, that transfer saga and his eventual departure has drained quite a lot of my enthusiasm.

We have looked very much out of sorts in pre-season. I guess some might argue that it is only pre-season.

Lucas really does have to step up a couple of gears this year. He will be in the spotlight for the first couple of months till Aquilani gets fit.

by **The Real Deal** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 9:31 pm

HI Mick

new member here.

Im not getting my hopes up at the start of season. Just beacause I was excited that we started so well last season up until december. 10 pints clear or somewhat, then stevie gets arrested and we could not escape from 0-0 results with stoke (home and away) hull, fulham etc etc and threw it all away.

Im not nervous about the first few games. if we do happen to start well, i just wonder if we can keep it going.

Chelsea ....i expect to be just as strong, esp now under ancelotti. a v. good manager.

Man Utd.... Will be well organised although loss of tevez and Ronaldo (two best players) will mean they will strugle for top 4 finish.Owen, fit , sharp and playing in a good side could come bac to haunt us. i wanted him back at anfield.

Arsenal, loss of adebayor and toure will cost them i feel.

Man city , i think may be a dark horse in the top 4 race. but the players they have got....bellamy, adebayor, barry, tevez, robinho. ..many of them have never won a prem league title so pedigree is a question, so depends how they come together.

for LFC...all about can they keep it going. I just worry if stevie or Torres get a lay off for bit, what will happen. last season we looked a lot weaker without one or other.

by **sixbuster** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 10:44 pm

I'd be happyish with 5 from 9, starting out. Chelsea could have 18-19 from 21 looking at first 7 games for them:angry:

by **bigmick** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 11:19 pm

The Real Deal wrote:HI Mick

new member here.

Im not getting my hopes up at the start of season. Just beacause I was excited that we started so well last season up until december. 10 pints clear or somewhat, then stevie gets arrested and we could not escape from 0-0 results with stoke (home and away) hull, fulham etc etc and threw it all away.

Im not nervous about the first few games. if we do happen to start well, i just wonder if we can keep it going.

Chelsea ....i expect to be just as strong, esp now under ancelotti. a v. good manager.

Man Utd.... Will be well organised although loss of tevez and Ronaldo (two best players) will mean they will strugle for top 4 finish.Owen, fit , sharp and playing in a good side could come bac to haunt us. i wanted him back at anfield.

Arsenal, loss of adebayor and toure will cost them i feel.

Man city , i think may be a dark horse in the top 4 race. but the players they have got....bellamy, adebayor, barry, tevez, robinho. ..many of them have never won a prem league title so pedigree is a question, so depends how they come together.

for LFC...all about can they keep it going. I just worry if stevie or Torres get a lay off for bit, what will happen. last season we looked a lot weaker without one or other.

Nice post mate, and you're almost certainly right about Gerrard and Torres. We showed last season that we can go without one or the other for a bit, but I think if we either had to do without one for a long period (particularly Gerrard I think) or perish the though do without both for half a dzen matches, we could be out of it quickly.

by **baldricks_cunning_plan** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 11:25 pm

bigmick wrote:
The Real Deal wrote:HI Mick

new member here.

Im not getting my hopes up at the start of season. Just beacause I was excited that we started so well last season up until december. 10 pints clear or somewhat, then stevie gets arrested and we could not escape from 0-0 results with stoke (home and away) hull, fulham etc etc and threw it all away.

Im not nervous about the first few games. if we do happen to start well, i just wonder if we can keep it going.

Chelsea ....i expect to be just as strong, esp now under ancelotti. a v. good manager.

Man Utd.... Will be well organised although loss of tevez and Ronaldo (two best players) will mean they will strugle for top 4 finish.Owen, fit , sharp and playing in a good side could come bac to haunt us. i wanted him back at anfield.

Arsenal, loss of adebayor and toure will cost them i feel.

Man city , i think may be a dark horse in the top 4 race. but the players they have got....bellamy, adebayor, barry, tevez, robinho. ..many of them have never won a prem league title so pedigree is a question, so depends how they come together.

for LFC...all about can they keep it going. I just worry if stevie or Torres get a lay off for bit, what will happen. last season we looked a lot weaker without one or other.

Nice post mate, and you're almost certainly right about Gerrard and Torres. We showed last season that we can go without one or the other for a bit, but I think if we either had to do without one for a long period (particularly Gerrard I think) or perish the though do without both for half a dzen matches, we could be out of it quickly.

Yes we could be out of it.

On the other hand in the absence of our two superstars, a few of the other lads could take responsibility a bit more and prove their worth to the team.

by **red37** » Fri Aug 07, 2009 11:33 pm

The Real Deal wrote:10 pints clear or somewhat

That'll be me before i fire up the 'barbie' tomorrow with any luck :eyebrow

(barbie.....i meant BBQ/Barbecue!) - not in oz am i...

jayzus!

by **Owzat** » Sat Aug 08, 2009 7:49 am

bigmick wrote:One for Owzat, how far can you afford to fall behind the leadersd and still win it?

Based on points after same number of games played, none of this "10 points ahead" but disregarding games in hand.

Premiership 08/09

Liverpool : P13 W10 D2 L1 F21 A8 PTS 32 (Won 76.92%)
Man Utd : P13 W7 D4 L2 F25 A10 PTS 25 (Won 53.85%)

So we were seven points ahead last season, the mancs then finished four points ahead of us so a swing of 11 points. It doesn't take very long to catch up 20 points, the mere matter of two draws and a defeat in three games can leave oponents a chance to catch up if they win three in a row. Last season Man Utd won 11 games in a row, and despite us winning 10 games out of 11 at the end of the season, they stayed ahead with a run of eight wins in nine games.

Man Utd Premiership 08/09

Games 01-13 : P13 W7 D4 L2 F25 A10 PTS 25 (Won 53.85%)
Games 14-38 : P25 W21 D2 L2 F43 A14 PTS 65 (Won 84.00%)

So we got our noses seven points clear, but 21 wins in 25 games is phenomenal even for the mancs - only four less wins than we managed in 38 games. In 07/08 they won 18 out of 21 on the back of no win in their opening three games. And in 06/07 they won 17 out of 22 games before failing to win either of their last two games (didn't need to)

So stats may not be everyone's cup of tea, but they are more informative than probably 70% of posts on any forum - you know, "Kuyt is :censored:

", "Babel will never be any good", "sell Dossena", "we will win 5-0" etc etc If Rafa paid attention to such stats he'd know the importance of winning. 27+ wins isn't just plucked out of the air, it's based on recent seasons which is where we need to aim at.

08/09 28 wins
07/08 27 wins
06/07 28 wins
05/06 29 wins
04/05 29 wins - record 95 points
03/04 26 wins - Arsenal's unbeaten season
02/03 25 wins
01/02 26 wins

The average number of wins by the Champions over the last five seasons is 28. Interestingly only once has the team finishing 2nd in the Premiership managed more than the 25 wins we managed last season - Man Utd won 26 games in 94/95 when Blackburn won with........................you guessed it, 27 wins. I wouldn't be too surprised if ORN knows this and aims at 27 wins. He certainly appreciates the importance of winning runs.

The mancs won 11 league games in a row last season, we haven't won more than five in a row since 05/06 during which time we've won nothing and the mancs have won three league titles and a European Cup.

Do we need a good start? I think WE probably do, the mancs seem to be able to win the league without needing one. What we need to do is look to win every game, maybe even settling for draws at Arsenal, Chelsea and the mancs is too negative. Go for the win, if it ends a draw then fair enough. All our opening seven fixtures are winnable, as long as Rafa and the players don't start thinking a draw away is a good result. To me thinking a draw away is a good result applies to playing at the aforementioned big four teams or small clubs with small club mentalities who settle for points against clubs they deem bigger than them. If we're deeming any club we play away at as bigger than us then how do we hope to be the biggest/best team in the country? The only grounds of last season's Premiership teams we haven't won at under Rafa are the Emirates and Britannia. Sadly there are a few other grounds we've not won at under Rafa including Selhurst Park, St Marys, Brammall Lane and (I hope it's not an omen) Turfmoor in the cup. Of course we have one of Rafa's bogey teams to play this season - the mighty brum (P8 W2 D4 L2)

by **roberto green** » Sat Aug 08, 2009 11:29 am

I am very concerned to say the least with the lack of quality in the creative side of the team OK Stevie and Fernanado can make things happen out the blue but who can dictate the tempo of the game or create things?

Very concerned especially with Aquaman out for 2 months

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