Liverpool FC Forum

Owzat wrote:We must certainly sustain a challenge similar to, if not better than, this season's. If Rafa can show that he can put pressure on the top side(s) for two seasons in a row then he should probably get an extension, if we whimper into third - maybe due to a distracting CL run - then I ask if we've made proper "progress".

I'm not sure if there would be any point continuing with Rafa in charge if we draw too many (say five or more) games in the first 19 next season, we simply must aim at 27 wins and it's the draws that have cost us this season - and last. In truth we simply didn't progress from our excellent season in 2005/06, we followed up 82 points with 68 and 76 - not bad, but a big 14 point step backwards and it's taken us two seasons to move forward from that 82 points instead of doing it the next season. A backward step of 3-5 points might have been ok, but not 14. There simply has to be some connection between our runs in the CL and the Premiership.

We've had two good starts to the season in a row, there is no guarantee that will continue next season. We've become very difficult to beat, we need to make the next step to going on long winning runs. Sure we had a run of nine and 10 wins in a row in 2005/06, but none longer than five since. Maybe the mancs have the psychological advantage, not over us, but the rest of the league. The rest of the league spend 90 mins wondering how long before the mancs score, how many and, if they go in front, how long before the mancs score as many as it takes to win. Sides come to Anfield knowing that they can defend a point because we simply haven't scored enough at home in the past. We may have scored 38 in 18 games at home this season, but 21 of those have come since the end of January

Home Games

Before Jan 31st : P11 W6 D5 L0 F17 A7 PTS 23 (Won 54.55%)
Since Jan 31st : P7 W5 D2 L0 F21 A5 PTS 17 (Won 71.14%)

Three goals a game since and including Chelsea at home, one and a half before that. One of the draws in the last seven home games was a 4-4 against Arsenal, the other 1-1. In the first 11 home games we not only drew five games, but scored only THREE goals in those five draws. As I've highlighted before with stats, if you don't score more than one goal you are vulnerable. Only twice this season have we scored 2+ goals in the league and not won, I think the stats are worth repeating/updating

PREMIERSHIP RESULTS BY GOALS SCORED 08/09

0 goals : P6 W0 D5 L1 F0 A2 PTS 5 (Won 0.00%)
1 goal : P9 W4 D4 L1 F9 A6 PTS 16 (Won 44.44%)
2 goals : P7 W6 D1 L0 F14 A4 PTS 19 (Won 85.71%)
3+ goals : P14 W13 D1 L0 F49 A14 PTS 40 (Won 92.86%)

We need to win around 70% of our games in a season, doesn't take a rocket scientist to work out how best to go about that from the above. HALF of those 14 games where we've scored 3+ goals have come since the beginning of March, one in February and three in December. We need to improve slightly on scoring, a few less goalless games and one or two less 1-1 draws ought to do it. Someone opposite Kuyt scoring a few more goals may well contribute to that

If Rafa can finally work out that winning games is more important than not losing games then maybe we'll see if he can do anything about it. Even if we do challenge again next season, I wouldn't give Rafa more than two more seasons without landing the Premiership. If he can't do it in 09/10 or 10/11 then I think he's had enough chances, even if he hasn't had as much money as other clubs, I can't see him suddenly getting more money or working out how to do a Wenger and win it in spite of that. Two more chances is fair, if he can't even challenge next season then part company as soon as it becomes clear we won't win it. This season it has been in the mancs' hands for half a dozen games or more, even after their (two game) 'blip'.