Liverpool FC Forum

by **fivecups** » Sun Apr 26, 2009 12:27 pm

Scottbot wrote:I don't think us winning the title is as far-fetched or unlikely as most, even after the Tottenham comeback yesterday. If we can take care of business I still think we have a real shot at this thing. Everyone seems to be certain the mancs need to lose to the Gooners and City (plus don't forget Boro turned them over last season) for it to happen but so long as they lose one of their next four games and we win ours we could be going into the last day of the season with the following scenario:

- LFC sitting 3 points behind them with a better goal difference
- The mancs play Hull at the KC needing only a draw to win the title
- Hull playing the mancs needing a win to stay in the division

so long as we keep winning it's quite possible and there is nothing worse than playing for a draw if your an attacking team like the mancs, especially when it's the last day of the season with a partisan crowd to deal with. I've got my fingers crossed.

I think it's unlikely that we'll win the league this year but it's certainly still possible and I definitely haven't given up hope just yet.

The bookies have us at 7/1 at the minute with United 12-14/1 ON. Balancing that out probably gives us about a 10-15% chance of winning the league this year which feels about right to me (obviously I've no way to statistically calculate or model this, it just feels about right). I think at best we were 3-1 (in March).

As you've said if United lose one game and we win our three it will go down to the last day of the season. If that happens with United needing a point away to Hull and us needing to beat Spurs at Anfield they'll probably still win the league, but on the last day with Hull potentially fighting relegation who knows?

We picked up six points on United over 2 matches in March - now we need to do it over 5.

Our performance yesterday was a bit worrying for me. As Owzat says, we need to get six points more than United rather than them just losing 2 matches. We need to play better than yesterday to make sure we achieve that. Newcastle are deep in the relegation battle and West Ham away is not an easy game either. Our defence seems to have fallen apart in the last few matches. Everyone's confidence seems to have gone. Arbeloa made numerous mistakes yesterday and Reina seems to have lost his way. I still think we should have started with Agger instead of Skrtel yesterday - he hasn't had a good match since he played LB against Middlesborough. I know Carra and Agger shipped four against Arsenal but it was a bit of a freak game. I think confidence at the back comes from understanding and continuity so changes to the CB partnership shouldn't be made unless absolutely neccessary. I think it would probably be better if Rafa settled on one LB for the rest of the season as well.

So for me it's unlikely but certainly still very possible. I'd love it to happen!

by **Scottbot** » Sun Apr 26, 2009 3:09 pm

fivecups wrote:
Scottbot wrote:I don't think us winning the title is as far-fetched or unlikely as most, even after the Tottenham comeback yesterday. If we can take care of business I still think we have a real shot at this thing. Everyone seems to be certain the mancs need to lose to the Gooners and City (plus don't forget Boro turned them over last season) for it to happen but so long as they lose one of their next four games and we win ours we could be going into the last day of the season with the following scenario:

- LFC sitting 3 points behind them with a better goal difference
- The mancs play Hull at the KC needing only a draw to win the title
- Hull playing the mancs needing a win to stay in the division

so long as we keep winning it's quite possible and there is nothing worse than playing for a draw if your an attacking team like the mancs, especially when it's the last day of the season with a partisan crowd to deal with. I've got my fingers crossed.

I think it's unlikely that we'll win the league this year but it's certainly still possible and I definitely haven't given up hope just yet.

The bookies have us at 7/1 at the minute with United 12-14/1 ON. Balancing that out probably gives us about a 10-15% chance of winning the league this year which feels about right to me (obviously I've no way to statistically calculate or model this, it just feels about right). I think at best we were 3-1 (in March).

As you've said if United lose one game and we win our three it will go down to the last day of the season. If that happens with United needing a point away to Hull and us needing to beat Spurs at Anfield they'll probably still win the league, but on the last day with Hull potentially fighting relegation who knows?

We picked up six points on United over 2 matches in March - now we need to do it over 5.

Our performance yesterday was a bit worrying for me. As Owzat says, we need to get six points more than United rather than them just losing 2 matches. We need to play better than yesterday to make sure we achieve that. Newcastle are deep in the relegation battle and West Ham away is not an easy game either. Our defence seems to have fallen apart in the last few matches. Everyone's confidence seems to have gone. Arbeloa made numerous mistakes yesterday and Reina seems to have lost his way. I still think we should have started with Agger instead of Skrtel yesterday - he hasn't had a good match since he played LB against Middlesborough. I know Carra and Agger shipped four against Arsenal but it was a bit of a freak game. I think confidence at the back comes from understanding and continuity so changes to the CB partnership shouldn't be made unless absolutely neccessary. I think it would probably be better if Rafa settled on one LB for the rest of the season as well.

So for me it's unlikely but certainly still very possible. I'd love it to happen!

Good post mate, my thoughts are pretty similar to yours although i'd give us 15-20% chance of winning it. If we can take it to the last day of the season i'll be absolutely delighted. I know a lot of people lost faith in the manager and the team at the midway point this season but I'm so proud of the way the team have bounced back and that will over-ride any disappointment or regret I will feel should the mancs go on to win the title.

As for our defence, they do look nervous as anything at the moment. All the more reason to bring in the experience of Sami. I'd play Sami and Carra for the rest of the season, we look short at set-pieces and desperately need the composure of the Big Fin for the run-in + I can't bear the thought of him leaving at the end of the season.

by **JC_81** » Sun Apr 26, 2009 7:30 pm

Owzat wrote:
SouthCoastShankly wrote:The tottenham result only enforced my pessimism. We don't stand a chance winning the league when the refereeing decisions Man Utd receive are that biased!

You mean one bad decision compared to lots of bad/absent defending? spudz lost because they couldn't defend, they allowed the mancs too much space and time in possession and got caught out because the mancs exploited it fully. Only one of the spudz goals was down to a "poor" refereeing decision.

I read a letter to teletext asking how many players we've had sent off against us this season and is it a record. We didn't exactly get the worse of decisions yesterday, we've had plenty of decisions work in our favour this season and last - we could have conceded a lot more penalties than we have for starters.

Sorry mate, yes Spurs didn't defend well second half, but anyone who says that refereeing decision didn't COMPLETELY change the game can't be serious.

Spurs were good value for a two goal lead. However we know they have a bit of a soft centre, so as soon as United got a goal back, you fancied them to score again. I thought from 2-0 up though Spurs would at least have held them to a draw, United's defending was equally shocking first half.

Such a bad decision was Howard Webb's that as I watched the game it didn't even enter my head that a pen would be given for that. I coulodn't believe it when he pointed to the spot. Neither could players from either team - you could see it on their faces. The injustice of it crushed Spurs mentally and they never recovered.

This decision has probably won them the title. It's absolutely sickening. I say probably because if United are as slack at the back against Arsenal and Man City then it's possible they could lose those games. It's a slim hope now but we can't give up.

by **DrPepe** » Sun Apr 26, 2009 7:43 pm

the referee cost them the important first goal

but gomez plus bad defending cost them 3 goals

by **JC_81** » Sat May 09, 2009 3:25 pm

I'm going to re-post in this thread on 'lessons learned' from this season, because I maintain that stability has played a major part in our improvement this season, and some quotes from Rafa today would suggest he thinks the same...(from bbc)

Benitez targets long-term success

Benitez believes players will find it hard to say no to Liverpool
Rafael Benitez believes Liverpool are in a better position than their rivals to challenge Manchester United for the league title during the coming seasons.

And the Reds manager said that building a settled squad was a key factor in the club's on-pitch improvement.

"Stability is good for any club and because the squad is better it means you don't need to change many players.

"I think we are better placed than the others for challenging United in the long term," Benitez said.

The 49-year-old, who has been at the club since 2004, added that the "spine of the team" was in place and just a couple more players were needed to take the team to a higher level.

"Now it will be easier. We can say to players 'come to Liverpool as you will win trophies in the future' and I think they will come," he said.

"We need some quality players to take us forward. If we can keep the consistency of this year then one or two players could make a massive difference."

Under Benitez, Liverpool have won the Champions League and FA Cup, although the highest they have finished in the Premier League is third.

The Anfield club have not won the league title since 1990 and are currently three points behind leaders United, although they have played one more game.

.... I'm encouraged by the comments about one or two players making a difference, because I think that's the key. We have learned this season that we don't need to change a lot, but one or two key players could make a big difference overall. The hard bit of course is making sure we get the right players.

by **Number 9** » Sat May 09, 2009 3:41 pm

Agreed 1 or 2 QUALITY players..not my be quality or could be quality!!
Fuc'king nailed on guaranteed (big bucks) quality are required.
Gonna be an interesting summer!! :nod

by **Sir Roger** » Sun May 10, 2009 6:55 pm

If one lesson MUST be learned from this season surely it must be that playing the way we have since sunderland on the 3rd of March.
The 1st leg of the Chelsea CL game aside, I think we have been magnificent and restored pride and faith in LFC around the world. To score 38 in 12 games (correct me if I'm wrong) is some acheivement. I know we can go on about the missed chances and lost opportunities but I believe that we have allowed the mancs to win the title rather than them winning it outright. This is encouraging for me as usually we are out of the race by January/February.
Now that Rafa has cleared the decks, got rid of his obstacles and has full control over everything he surely has no excuse not to win the quadruple next year...
:;):

by **bigmick** » Sun May 10, 2009 9:14 pm

Well even if we do fall short now, at least we've found the method of maximising our potential. The West Ham game was a perfect example in that not too long ago we'd have been switching our formation around to counter Louis Boa Morte, playing three centre halves because they sometimes cross it and would been 0-0 after 65 minutes, at which point we'd have changed it.

As it is now, we don't so much park the bus as ram raid it through the main entrance to the stadium. Having smashed our way in, we jump off the coach team handed asking "who fecking wants some?" before proceeding to kick erse from minute one. West Ham probably guessed that Gerrard and Torres would be a handfull, it didn't help them in stopping it though because they well and truly were. Nowadays, if it's 0-0 after ten minutes the opposition is thinking "feck me we'll never keep it like this for the whole 90" as opposed to those interminable performances where we barely have a shot in anger, before hearing in the aftermath that we "controlled the game" and are given the impression that a draw is a good result.

This is the way to play, the way we are playing now. There's no wonder Gerrard says it's a pleasure to play in the team, it's a pleasure to watch it as well. Some of us have long suspected that all that stuff about we couldn't compete because we'd been outspoent by 11 million quid over five years or whatever the feck it is (Where's S@int when you need him) didn't hold true. We didn't believe either that it was impossible to challenge while there was uncertainty in the boardroom, once again it just didn't make sense. Neither did we think that Rick Parry being CEO was a barrier to us making a fist of things. We thought that Rafa had bought good players, built a good team and that it was just a question of giving ourselves a chance, playing to our potential, not shooting ourselves in the foot every week.

We've found the way to play. It's high tempo, aggressive, offensive football with a win at all costs mentality being at the core of its philosophy. Hopefully by the time next season starts the memory is still fresh as to how we do it.

by **tubby** » Sun May 10, 2009 9:18 pm

bigmick wrote:As it is now, we don't so much park the bus as ram raid it through the main entrance to the stadium. Having smashed our way in, we jump off the coach team handed asking "who fecking wants some?" before proceeding to kick erse from minute one.

Love it.

And I hope that continues come next season, just without the leaking of silly goals.

by **Madmax** » Sun May 10, 2009 9:19 pm

Personally i think next year will be more tough than this year and we will have to be more ruthless against all opposition. Really annoyed with the draws we could have easily won the title this year... I really don't know if we will win it next year. Just feel we have blown away the best chance to win the league this season...
Feel like shyte at the moment.. So frustrating.

by **JC_81** » Sun May 10, 2009 9:28 pm

bigmick wrote:Well even if we do fall short now, at least we've found the method of maximising our potential. The West Ham game was a perfect example in that not too long ago we'd have been switching our formation around to counter Louis Boa Morte, playing three centre halves because they sometimes cross it and would been 0-0 after 65 minutes, at which point we'd have changed it.

As it is now, we don't so much park the bus as ram raid it through the main entrance to the stadium. Having smashed our way in, we jump off the coach team handed asking "who fecking wants some?" before proceeding to kick erse from minute one. West Ham probably guessed that Gerrard and Torres would be a handfull, it didn't help them in stopping it though because they well and truly were. Nowadays, if it's 0-0 after ten minutes the opposition is thinking "feck me we'll never keep it like this for the whole 90" as opposed to those interminable performances where we barely have a shot in anger, before hearing in the aftermath that we "controlled the game" and are given the impression that a draw is a good result.

This is the way to play, the way we are playing now. There's no wonder Gerrard says it's a pleasure to play in the team, it's a pleasure to watch it as well. Some of us have long suspected that all that stuff about we couldn't compete because we'd been outspoent by 11 million quid over five years or whatever the feck it is (Where's S@int when you need him) didn't hold true. We didn't believe either that it was impossible to challenge while there was uncertainty in the boardroom, once again it just didn't make sense. Neither did we think that Rick Parry being CEO was a barrier to us making a fist of things. We thought that Rafa had bought good players, built a good team and that it was just a question of giving ourselves a chance, playing to our potential, not shooting ourselves in the foot every week.

We've found the way to play. It's high tempo, aggressive, offensive football with a win at all costs mentality being at the core of its philosophy. Hopefully by the time next season starts the memory is still fresh as to how we do it.

Good post Mick.

Sums up the way myself and I'm sure countless others feel at the moment. By sticking so many goals past opponents over the past few months, teams now fear us. Not because they might lose, but because they might get humiliated, like Villa, like Blackburn, like Newcastle, like United, like Real Madrid and like all the other teams we've taken apart this season. When next season comes around we have put ourselves on level footing with United and Chelsea in terms of teams coming out to play us beaten before the game starts. That will be worth a significant amount of points in itself, wait and see!

One or two significant signings added to that in the summer, without losing any of our key players and I really believe we can do something special next season. And to be honest it'll be the first season in a long time I'll actually believe from the start that we can seriously win the league.

by **GYBS** » Mon May 11, 2009 9:00 am

The question is - you cant play at that high tempo all the way through the season without tiring the players - esp with the amount of games each team has to play so at times throughout the season players will need to be rested and squad players need to come into the team - this is where the mancs are ahead of us - the players that come into the team are all 10 million plus players .

by **bigmick** » Mon May 11, 2009 9:12 am

GYBS wrote:The question is - you cant play at that high tempo all the way through the season without tiring the players - esp with the amount of games each team has to play so at times throughout the season players will need to be rested and squad players need to come into the team - this is where the mancs are ahead of us - the players that come into the team are all 10 million plus players .

Within the greatest respect, no they aren't. The De Silva twins aren't ten million pound players, nor is Johnny Evans. Nor is the goalkeeper from Watford, (or even Van Der sar come to that) nor is Darren Fletcher or the Italian kid. Nor is Evra either, or Vidic. They've also got other kids, Donny Welbeck or whatever the feck he's called and the like who come in who cost a lot less than 10 million quid. Come to that, Giggs Scholes and Neville didn't cost ten million quid either.

On of the bi-products of our title challenge is that we can surely all agree now that the team is/was plenty good enough to launch such a challenge all along. Contrary to what some felt earlier in the season, we weren't disqualified from being challengers by financial shortcomings, nor were the boardroom shenanighans or the presence of Rick Parry significant. I say this because if we were outgunned before we still are financially, the boardroom is still shenaniganing away till it's hearts content, and Rick Parry is still in situ.

The "10 million pound players in reserve" thing is simply a myth. Yes they have more of the expensive players than us, but we've chosen to spread our resources thinner than they have as we like having a huge squad. Also, with deference to the Babelians we've shown that having 10 million pound players on the bench is no certainty that they'll do much when they come on. Sometimes players who we paid twice that amount for have little impact so in itself it's not significant I don't think.

by **GYBS** » Mon May 11, 2009 9:18 am

Da silva between the both cost them around 8 million - Evans is a great young player but its going forward where the difference is mick - Nani- 18 million - Anderson - 18 million - Tevez- worth 30 million - Hargreaves (when fit) 20 million - Rooney 30 mil - Berbatov - 30 mil - Ronaldo 20 milish Carrick 20 mil they just bought two serb kids at around 15 million (The players you mention Mick are all defenders so they arent going to be big money ). Giggs(20 odd mill in prime),Scholes (30 mil in prime)and Flether all experienced prem performers. yes they have a few other kids ie wellbeck and gibson namely but they played cup as opposed to prem. and Maceda i think will be a flash in the pan .

by **Owzat** » Mon May 11, 2009 9:33 am

Did you know that four times this season we've drawn and not used all three subs? It may be there wasn't a lot could be done, but perhaps it also reflects a lack of options on the bench.

Not used all subs in draws

vs Stoke (h) D0-0 : Babel and Benayoun came on
vs West Ham (h) D0-0 : Babel and N'Gog came on
vs Stoke (a) D0-0 : Babel and Torres came on
vs Arsenal (h) D4-4 : Babel and El Zhar came on

The 4-4 you can understand not using all your subs since goalscoring wasn't an issue, well maybe bringing on someone who could defend was an option, but three 0-0s out of five and Rafa used only three subs. You might expect the manager to try everything, but perhaps it also reflects a dearth of options on the bench. - All three of the above 0-0 draws happened before Keane left, he started two and was an unused sub away to Stoke.

At 0-0 you can't blame a late equaliser, so it is merely time running out and the manager not using all his substitutions - in some cases too late as well

Subs used when Liverpool haven't scored, who for or why (if worthy of mention) and which minute :-

3 vs Aston Villa (a) D0-0 : N'gog for injured Torres 30, Aurelio 70, Benayoun 79
2 vs Stoke (h) D0-0 : Babel for Riera 65, Benayoun 73
3 vs Fulham (h) D0-0 : Alonso for Mascherano 64, Babel for Riera 78, El Zhar for Kuyt 81
2 vs West Ham (h) D0-0 : N'Gog for Keane 66, Babel for Riera 78
2 vs Stoke (a) D0-0 : Torres for Riera 60, Babel for Benayoun 76
3 vs Middlesboro (a) L0-2* : N'Gog 68 for El Zhar, Benayoun for Carragher 71, Lucas for Gerrard 76

*2nd Boro goal was on 68 mins, I think fergie and whichever Chelsea manager would have thrown on three subs immediately at that scoreline with just 22 mins to go.

NINE of the 15 substitutions made on or after 70 minutes when we hadn't scored, one other was an enforced injury chance - 30 mins vs A Villa, N'Gog for Torres. Next earliest is 60 mins, not that there are (m)any on here who don't know when Rafa makes substitutions, which are his usual ones and how often they make an impact, but 60% made after 70 mins when your side hasn't scored is not clever.

Babel has come on for Riera THREE times in our five 0-0 draws, I seem to recall someone saying that switch had only happened 10 times all season, must have been a week or so ago whoever said it (Bad Bob?)

So the overall point, backed up with some stats, is that Rafa's substitutions are often late and ineffective, not helped by what our bench normally looks like in terms of personnel available. But then you loan out Voronin and Pennant and your bench is bound to be lacking in options. Our bench on Saturday was Insua, Dossena and Babel (used), Cavalieri, Hyypia, Degen and N'Gog - only N'Gog and Babel are 'out and out' attacking options. If we want to make a better title challenge next season I reckon tactics on subs (timing, who etc) needs improvement and the bench itself needs a few more options. To have only two attacking options when the bench allows seven is a waste.

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