Liverpool FC Forum

by **Sabre** » Sat Feb 14, 2009 2:50 am

You're right about 9 draws not costing only 9 points, It's 18. I didn't want to discuss that. I was talking about 9 points drop or 18, I don't care, teams do drop points. The league table says that all teams bar one drop more points than us, and the one who has dropped less so far, is less than 5 points away, so you see, they also must have dropped 13 points at least against teams that they should have beaten. Yes, in top leagues, top teams drop points.

Why do I talk about Arsenal? for the same reason I came here to learn about Liverpool and I have learned a lot about Ferguson, Mourinho and Wenger. For instance about Mourinho I'm learning a lot these days

. THey're competitors, they are big clubs, they have similar problems or situations, and comparisons are stablished all the time. That's why.

"As for torres, when did we become a one man team? " Never, that's why we're still competing for the league, and building a squad that can win when the best midfielder of the club is injured, is a sign of progress, thank you for bringing that one. Nonetheless it's obvious that if people demanded a world class striker, that player comes and succeeds because he scores when others do not, you'll probably notice it when you don't have that player. It may be as important factor as the difference between rotating 2 or 3 players, choosing Kuyt or Keane to fill that gap maybe a mistake or not of Rafa, but Torres' injury is the main problem there.

About your opinion of this is the manager getting it wrong and not a blip, well, that's your respectable opinion and I don't have anything to argue about that. I admit he commits errors, some of them big, like buying Keane in summer and selling him now with no replacement, but I don't agree that for instance that he isn't progresively building a stronger, and thus more likely to win titles side.

I don't think his last team selection was a mistake neither, Bizarre, yes, strange, of course, but after watching the football game they played football and won. Not a mistake. And I do think he has elevated the level of football of this club, as we're now considering the league as something that may decide whether the manager continues here or not.

Last February, when JBG wrote that excellent (and very severe!) and accurate post about Rafa he probably could not imagine the situation in the table in February 2009. So how can be anyone be so sure that Rafa will not bring another good surprise?

by **Bad Bob** » Sat Feb 14, 2009 5:27 am

peewee wrote:evidence is already on the table bob, 9 draws against teams we should be beating, surely if we go on to win it people can not claim these draws were all part of some tactical masterplan. if we go on to win it this year its because the mancs slip up, they are the ones in the driving seat. we were in the driving seat until Mr.mustsitbackandtakenorisks fecked us over

if we win the league nobody can point to rafas alleged genius, he has already shown us this is not the case by throwing away he lead whilst whilst whinging about red nose and his new contract. if he had any sense he would have just signed it for the bigger pay off when he gets booted. it seems like this contract is not coming, i am sure the board would have already discussed his terms about sole control of signings before they offered him the contract so whats the delay now? the contract is not coming

Nah, I'm still holding out to wait and see what happens the rest of the season. Rafa will be here through the end of the season anyway so there's no point judging it all at this stage. If, come the end of the season, we've won the league I don't think anyone can sensibly call for his head. It doesn't necessarily mean that people have to think Rafa's a tactical genius but, I'll repeat, teams don't win the league in spite of their managers. When all is said and done, Rafa will have managed Liverpool to another title and that's the important part. Some will no doubt be prepared to chalk it up to the Mancs throwing the title away but, even if that happens, we'll have been in a position to take advantage and I'll be giving credit where credit's due.

Of course, we've got a ways to go yet so this is just a scenario at this point. As several people have mentioned, the big questions about Rafa's future will come if we don't win the league. Fair play to those of you that have already made up your minds in that eventuality but I prefer to just wait and see how we go. After all, I still remember how absolutely shocking we looked at this point last season and then along came Inter...

by **bigmick** » Sat Feb 14, 2009 5:29 am

The reason why Wenger shouldn't be sacked as Arsenal manager is equity in terms of success. He's done the double with them, he's gone through the league season unbeaten with them, and as recently as last season he'd built a team on a shoestring which came very close to winning the title playing fantastic football. That same team, which he had rebuilt in it's absolute entirity from the "invincibles" outfit of four years earlier, absoloutely played Liverpool for instance off the park in the league match at Anfield. There's equity there, and you don't need a fantastic memory to recall it.

Now this season, there are tangible reasons to explain their demise (and is there anybody left out there who is denying they aren't as good a team this season, still?). I personally think that despite some viable excuses, Wenger has made a couple of poor decisions this season which haven't helped. Failure to lance the boil of the William Gallas situation, and failure to sign a coupe of experienced players in the Summer has cost them heavily. I think the excuses are legitimate, Hleb sold, Flamini walked, some long term injuries to Rosicky, Fabregas, Walcott, Toure and the little striker from Croatia who's actually a Brazillian, but nontheless there have been errors. As Sabre says, correctly, all managers make them.

They have though by all accounts got a bunch of youngsters coming through who are the best they've ever had. I know we've heard it all before, but when managers of opposing teams are saying it, you think there might be something there. They've got the arrival of Arshavin to look forward to, as well as one or two of the injury list finally getting themselves fit. They've also got the legitimate excuse that they are a mile behind the spend of Liverpool and Manchester United. I don't think they spent 40 million quid last Summer or any Summer to be honest.

So no, Wenger shouldn't be sacked. It's all about equity.

by **Owzat** » Sat Feb 14, 2009 11:23 am

Here's some interesting splits of our results this season by league position :-

01-07 : P9 W5 D4 L0 PTS 19/27
08-14 : P8 W5 D3 L0 PTS 18/24
15-20 : P8 W5 D2 L1 PTS 17/24

Not ambitious enough against villa away, not clinical enough against Wigan and the bitters recently. But you expect to drop points against sides in the top seven, it's the five draws in 16 games against the rest that are killing our season.

01-04 : P4 W3 D1 L0 PTS 10 (Won 75.00%)
05-12 : P10 W4 D6 L0 PTS 18 (Won 40.00%)
13-20 : P11 W8 D2 L1 PTS 26 (Won 72.73%)

Too many draws against the upper mid-table sides, not great against the bottom sides as we need to be winning about 70%+ overall and those sides struggling are the ones we should be beating not dropping points against. We've beaten the three sides in the relegation zone, but dropped seven points against Stoke (17th) and Tottenham (15th).

Too Many Draws

01-04 : 1 draw in 3 games (33.33%)
05-08 : 4 draws in 6 games (66.67%)
09-12 : 2 draws in 4 games (50.00%)
13-16 : 0 draws in 7 games (0.00%)
17-20 : 2 draws in 5 games (40.00%)

At least two draws that should definitely not have happened. Had we won those games against Stoke that would put us two points clear of Man Utd instead of two behind - game in hand unchanged. It's too many points dropped against top eight sides, but at least they're vaguely excusable due to league position, dropping silly points to strugging sides is inexcusable. I'd take the odd defeat over dropping points through draws, we could end up with least defeats in the Premiership this season but end 2nd, 3rd or even 4th. Man Utd lost more games than Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal last season and won the Premiership - the drew FOUR less games than any of the rest.

A defeat is three points dropped, a draw is two points dropped - nine draws is as many points dropped as SIX defeats. All sides expect to draw a few games through the season, only three times in the last 13 seasons have the Champions drawn more than nine games - the 13 season average is eight draws which we've already exceeded after 25 games. Only five times in that same period have the Champions lost less than five games in a season, the Champions of the past four seasons have won 70%+ of their games and that is the key

by **dawson99** » Sat Feb 14, 2009 11:28 am

bigmick wrote:The reason why Wenger shouldn't be sacked as Arsenal manager is equity in terms of success. He's done the double with them, he's gone through the league season unbeaten with them, and as recently as last season he'd built a team on a shoestring which came very close to winning the title playing fantastic football. That same team, which he had rebuilt in it's absolute entirity from the "invincibles" outfit of four years earlier, absoloutely played Liverpool for instance off the park in the league match at Anfield. There's equity there, and you don't need a fantastic memory to recall it.

Now this season, there are tangible reasons to explain their demise (and is there anybody left out there who is denying they aren't as good a team this season, still?). I personally think that despite some viable excuses, Wenger has made a couple of poor decisions this season which haven't helped. Failure to lance the boil of the William Gallas situation, and failure to sign a coupe of experienced players in the Summer has cost them heavily. I think the excuses are legitimate, Hleb sold, Flamini walked, some long term injuries to Rosicky, Fabregas, Walcott, Toure and the little striker from Croatia who's actually a Brazillian, but nontheless there have been errors. As Sabre says, correctly, all managers make them.

They have though by all accounts got a bunch of youngsters coming through who are the best they've ever had. I know we've heard it all before, but when managers of opposing teams are saying it, you think there might be something there. They've got the arrival of Arshavin to look forward to, as well as one or two of the injury list finally getting themselves fit. They've also got the legitimate excuse that they are a mile behind the spend of Liverpool and Manchester United. I don't think they spent 40 million quid last Summer or any Summer to be honest.

So no, Wenger shouldn't be sacked. It's all about equity.

But...

Aren't Arsenal now as ateam going backwards more than forwards? It's all well and good what they won and being a 'young' team. the team ain't moving forwards, sometimes a fresh set of eyes are needed, it's that simple

by **Bam** » Sat Feb 14, 2009 11:30 am

dawson99 wrote:
bigmick wrote:The reason why Wenger shouldn't be sacked as Arsenal manager is equity in terms of success. He's done the double with them, he's gone through the league season unbeaten with them, and as recently as last season he'd built a team on a shoestring which came very close to winning the title playing fantastic football. That same team, which he had rebuilt in it's absolute entirity from the "invincibles" outfit of four years earlier, absoloutely played Liverpool for instance off the park in the league match at Anfield. There's equity there, and you don't need a fantastic memory to recall it.

Now this season, there are tangible reasons to explain their demise (and is there anybody left out there who is denying they aren't as good a team this season, still?). I personally think that despite some viable excuses, Wenger has made a couple of poor decisions this season which haven't helped. Failure to lance the boil of the William Gallas situation, and failure to sign a coupe of experienced players in the Summer has cost them heavily. I think the excuses are legitimate, Hleb sold, Flamini walked, some long term injuries to Rosicky, Fabregas, Walcott, Toure and the little striker from Croatia who's actually a Brazillian, but nontheless there have been errors. As Sabre says, correctly, all managers make them.

They have though by all accounts got a bunch of youngsters coming through who are the best they've ever had. I know we've heard it all before, but when managers of opposing teams are saying it, you think there might be something there. They've got the arrival of Arshavin to look forward to, as well as one or two of the injury list finally getting themselves fit. They've also got the legitimate excuse that they are a mile behind the spend of Liverpool and Manchester United. I don't think they spent 40 million quid last Summer or any Summer to be honest.

So no, Wenger shouldn't be sacked. It's all about equity.

But...

Aren't Arsenal now as ateam going backwards more than forwards? It's all well and good what they won and being a 'young' team. the team ain't moving forwards, sometimes a fresh set of eyes are needed, it's that simple

Daws man.

hows you doing.

sorry thought this was gen chat.

by **dawson99** » Sat Feb 14, 2009 11:31 am

I come here too lol

but on the Arsene regime, a lot of my mates are big Arsenal fans, season ticket holders who now don';t want to be in the champs league as with the new stadium the club is leaving the real fans and going to the johnny come latelys (JCL's)

by **Bam** » Sat Feb 14, 2009 11:38 am

dawson99 wrote:I come here too lol

but on the Arsene regime, a lot of my mates are big Arsenal fans, season ticket holders who now don';t want to be in the champs league as with the new stadium the club is leaving the real fans and going to the johnny come latelys (JCL's)

Yeah I understand that, and I know a few Gooners who would disagree with Mick.

But why dont your mates want them in the CL ?

by **dawson99** » Sat Feb 14, 2009 11:41 am

they hate the stadium, how the fans that get tickets aren't the real fans, so they wanna clean house, get it back to real supporters. Plus they think the team is stagnant lately and things are looking like only getting worse.
Why would players like Fab and Ade play in the UEFA cup when Madrid or Barca comes calling.

by **bigmick** » Sat Feb 14, 2009 11:56 am

It's a crucial few weeks for Arsenal I think (and I'm not trying to derail the thread). It seems to me that one of the big four has an excellent chance of missing out on the Champions League cash this season as Villa are looking solid, and it obviously looks to like Arsenal could be the ones. That said, Villa have got a really tough little run of matches coming up while Arsenal have easier games, so if Arshavin can give them a lift then they may be able to reel Villa back in.

It could then get very interesting. It wouldn't surprise me at all if the arrival of Hiddink galvanised Chelsea massively and they finished with a right old rattle. Arsenal really do need to get something going to get into the Champions League (and as Daws says, give themselves a chance of holding onto their best players) while Villa are going to fight till the death to get in for the first time.

Meanwhile at the moment we are looking good because we're in a bit of a comfort zone. We're not invloved in any Champions League scrap, we're well and truly going all out for the title. The worry is though, say we lost at Man Utd and then had a little bliiip for which we have become accustomed and it could change quickly. Suddenly, we could be caught between two stools in that in order to catch Man Utd we need to go all out for the wins, whereas in order to finish in the top four we need to be avoiding defeats and keeping it tight.

The league is really very hard to call this season, and it's easily the most exciting Premiership I can remember. I think the winners are emerging out of the fog now as the other teams didn't take advantage of them having one last fag and cup of coffee after the starting gun had sounded, but after that it's a really hard call.

by **Owzat** » Sat Feb 14, 2009 12:30 pm

villa have some crucial games imminent, their away record (best in the league) will be tested. MON's already ranting about the Heskey/England situation

21/02 Chelsea (h)
04/03 Man City (a)
22/03 Liverpool (a)
04/04 Man Utd (a)

Arsenal have to travel to Old Trafford and Anfield, and host Chelsea, but you feel they have more chance of getting results than villa.

04/04 Man City (h)
18/04 Liverpool (a)
09/05 Chelsea (h)
16/05 Man Utd (a)

Same teams, one more at home for Arsenal and their record against Man Utd is far superior to villa's - villa haven't beaten the mancs in any competition since 13/10/99 and not in the league since 19/08/95. Arsenal beat Man Utd earlier in the season, won home AND away in 06/07, and are only worse off overall on wins by 77 to 82 against the mancs in their head to head (better than our record

)

by **tonyeh** » Sat Feb 14, 2009 1:09 pm

Bad Bob wrote:As for Tony...I find it beyond comprehension that anyone could contemplate dismissing Rafa's methods as "folly" if they deliver us a title. We're not talking a lucky result in a one-off game here...we're talking top of the pile after 38 games in the league we all acknowledge to be the toughest in world football. And Chelsea and Arsenal's form matters not a jot in this because the Mancs are in the driver's seat now...

Honestly, I don't understand why you would consider my comments "beyond comprehension". To me it makes perfect sense.

If Liverpool win the league (and that requires a Utd hicup now, due to our own failures), it won't be because of Benitez's instance on using zonal marking in set pieces, chancing his arm with bizzarre lineups, his mind-numbing subbing policy, his needless "resting" of players crucial to our title challenge and playing players that he really shouldn't, etc.

No, Liverpool are not where they are now, because of Rafa's fantasic management methods, but because the other three in the so-called "big four" fecked up at various points in the year. Arsenal permanently screwed their season, Utd stuttered at the beginning and Chelsea have gone off the boil (and now need time to bed in Hiddink also). Liverpool have not played well this year, but for a handful of games and have found themselves floating around the top of the table due to the misfortune of others and at times incredible fortune of their own. I still find it funny that in the weekend where we failed to score to secure our place at the top spot, none of the other "big four" scored either! And I'm still looking at that remarkable Portsmouth game in dis-belief.

Peewee is correct when he says that a Liverpool title this year will not be due to a Benitez masterplan.

Either way, a Liverpool title will be fantastic (even if it's only to shut Utd fans up

) and will probably result in Rafa getting a new contract. But the icing on the cake will be if Benitez recogises that some of his approach simply doesn't work...and changes it for next year to make Liverpool a stronger outfit capable of regular title challenges.

by **account deleted by request** » Sat Feb 14, 2009 1:21 pm

Perhaps an easy way of explaining Tonyeh's position is:- I once received a lift down to Torquay by someone I can only describe as an idiot driver. Yes, we arrived safely after numerous close calls (and a lot of swearing from me), but I wouldn't have wanted him to ever drive me again.

by **Bad Bob** » Sat Feb 14, 2009 1:48 pm

tonyeh wrote:
Bad Bob wrote:As for Tony...I find it beyond comprehension that anyone could contemplate dismissing Rafa's methods as "folly" if they deliver us a title. We're not talking a lucky result in a one-off game here...we're talking top of the pile after 38 games in the league we all acknowledge to be the toughest in world football. And Chelsea and Arsenal's form matters not a jot in this because the Mancs are in the driver's seat now...

Honestly, I don't understand why you would consider my comments "beyond comprehension". To me it makes perfect sense.

If Liverpool win the league (and that requires a Utd hicup now, due to our own failures), it won't be because of Benitez's instance on using zonal marking in set pieces, chancing his arm with bizzarre lineups, his mind-numbing subbing policy, his needless "resting" of players crucial to our title challenge and playing players that he really shouldn't, etc.

No, Liverpool are not where they are now, because of Rafa's fantasic management methods, but because the other three in the so-called "big four" fecked up at various points in the year. Arsenal permanently screwed their season, Utd stuttered at the beginning and Chelsea have gone off the boil (and now need time to bed in Hiddink also). Liverpool have not played well this year, but for a handful of games and have found themselves floating around the top of the table due to the misfortune of others and at times incredible fortune of their own. I still find it funny that in the weekend where we failed to score to secure our place at the top spot, none of the other "big four" scored either! And I'm still looking at that remarkable Portsmouth game in dis-belief.

Peewee is correct when he says that a Liverpool title this year will not be due to a Benitez masterplan.

Either way, a Liverpool title will be fantastic (even if it's only to shut Utd fans up ) and will probably result in Rafa getting a new contract. But the icing on the cake will be if Benitez recogises that some of his approach simply doesn't work...and changes it for next year to make Liverpool a stronger outfit capable of regular title challenges.

We're getting into "agree to disagree" territory, I think, but I'll have one last try. A season is long--38 games long, in fact--and grueling so you can't chalk up winning a title to luck. No team's luck lasts 10 months and works both to secure their own results while sticking a spoke in the wheels of each of their main title rivals (of which there are usually at least 2-3). So, if we win the title it won't be because we were lucky. Sure, we'll have got the odd bounce, call or result go our way but those will be evened out by the instances of bad luck anyway so explaining the title due to luck is far from convincing.

So it must be the players then? We've got Gerrard and Torres after all and they do 90% of the heavy lifting, right? If they don't manage to do their roy of the rovers routine we sometimes get someone else stepping up to get us a result, albeit infrequently. And, I'd agree, a big part of any title winning season will be the form of your players--most especially your key players. As it happens, we've had Gerrard playing out of his skin for months this season but Torres either injured or rather quiet for much of his season (but showing signs of life in the last few weeks)--so even despite our bad luck with Torres' hamstrings we're managing. But that doesn't mean we'll have won the title just because of the players.

But even if we give the players the credit they deserve for actually doing the job on the pitch, I still contend that it's a complete nonsense to suggest that they've done what they've done "despite" the manager. I'm pretty sure Rafa's had a hand in making us one of the meanest defenses in the league (and, on this point, this ongoing fixation with the "flaws" of zonal marking completely fails to acknowledge that the system fundamentally works and works well for us and has done for several seasons...). I'm also certain that it was Rafa's decision to play Gerrard in behind Torres--a move that has got the best out of both players when they've played (but, of course, it must be defensive because it means we have only one recognized striker on the pitch...) and will be big contributing factor to any title victory. Rafa probably had a little something to do with our double over Chelsea and our victory over the Mancs as well, seeing as we were well organized in all three matches, controlled vast portions of those games and came away with significant, morale boosting victories as reward for our efforts (although some will no doubt still harp on about our 'lucky' goals and ignore the fact that we bossed the games...).

So, surely there's a middle ground here? If we win the title it doesn't mean that Rafa's enacted a brilliant tactical masterplan since August because he hasn't: he's made plenty of mistakes, including some real whoppers. But, crucially, winning the title will never happen "despite" Rafa. Just because his methods are eccentric at times doesn't mean he should get zero credit for winning the thing. In fact, the same applies to our current position. We're two points off the top in mid-February and it's been a few years since we can say that. Yes, we've made mistakes so far to slide from an even loftier position but we're still right in the thick of a title race and that's not such a bad place to be at the end of the day. And, while luck and the lads have played their role in helping us get to this stage, I think it's blinkered in the extreme to refuse to give credit to the manager as well. That's why I find your position incomprehensible, Tony, because you work far too hard to deny Benitez credit when logic suggests that he deserves as much praise for what's gone right as he does criticism for what's gone wrong thus far.

by **Bad Bob** » Sat Feb 14, 2009 1:56 pm

s@int wrote:Perhaps an easy way of explaining Tonyeh's position is:- I once received a lift down to Torquay by someone I can only describe as an idiot driver. Yes, we arrived safely after numerous close calls (and a lot of swearing from me), but I wouldn't have wanted him to ever drive me again.

Conversely you could argue that, after hiring a fellow to solve a problem that you've been unable to fix for almost 20 years, it would be churlish in the extreme to castigate his methods and deny him any credit in the event that he does manage to fix it?

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