Liverpool FC Forum

by **66-1112520797** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 2:28 am

holylamb2006 wrote:Looks like we'll be without Agger for the season

I'm not overly bothered, not being horrible but we have cover their now, and I reckon Skertel will be better than Danny.

by **Thingy** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 3:05 am

Yari a few pages back was right in my opinion, Masch will have Fabragas in his pocket. Us at home second leg, bring it on .

by **holylamb2006** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 3:07 am

I'm not overly bothered, not being horrible but we have cover their now, and I reckon Skertel will be better than Danny

Yer but i'm just hate wen i hear things like that happen to players , esspecially a Liverpool player.

by **The Manhattan Project** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 3:22 am

Arsenal have got Adebajoranyornayor.

He's a good striker.

We'll have to be careful of him.

Chest Fabgrass is a good player too.

by **maguskwt** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 3:49 am

nobybob wrote:for me this is def a fix , the odds of predicting the draw is something like 100/1 or a lot more depending on who's maths you accept. Now OK some people argue that this poster is only one of many who all gave different predictions on different sites, true BUT his wasn't just a prediction he was also saying there was a fix in. But the real clincher here is that the bookies stopped taking bets meaning that an unusual amount had been wagered on one particular result. Now if it was just a case of different people offering many different possible outcomes and one of them just striking lucky so to speak, then the betting would also have been spread out to reflect this . So we have the combination of--posters accusation of a rigged result before the draw----the same poster getting the draw right ---- and bookies refusing bets because of irregular betting patterns! The odds of this occurring without a fix must be millions to one.

FIXED FIXED FIXED

my sentiments exactly nobybob... it will be something hard to proof but there IS something fishy going on...

by **maguskwt** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 4:05 am

some new interesting posts from that thread:

******
Peter_T:

Three issues here:

a) What's the actual probability of someone guessing the four combinations of the teams?

b) What would lead the bookmakers to refuse to take punter's bets on the draw?

c) Who benefits from the draw if indeed it was rigged?

I'm afraid my maths isn't up to answering the probablility question, but I've a stong hunch that nobody's worked it out correctly yet. If you're predicting the draw of eight balls in sequence, and after each one, there's one less in the bag, then you get:
(1/8 ) x (1/7) x (1/6) x (1/5) x (1/4) x (1/3) x (1/2) x (1/1 which is redundant) which gives you 1 chance in 40320 or 0.00248 %

This gets more complicated if you're just predicting the 4 correct combinations of teams without concern for sequence, because after the initial and each subsequent pair are determined, there are only so many other combinations left in the bag- Any mathematicians out there got a formula for this?

The next issue is why do bookmakers stop taking bets on an event that meant to be random and free from fixing?
Well either the outcome of the bet appears to be so highly probable or certain that there's no longer any risk of being wrong (you'll get good odds for snow on Xmas day right now, but if there are blizzards on Xmas eve and you fancy a punt, you're out of luck); Or, there is reason to believe that a supposedly random event is in fact not random at all. That doesn't mean the bookmakers had an inside whisper about dodgy dealings in UEFA. And I think it's unlikely that rumours going around the internet would be enough on their own. The thing that spooks bookmakers is abnormal betting patterns, particularly where someone (not necessarily in the UK) is placing extremely large bets on seemingly improbable/ unpredictable events out of kilter with typical betting patterns. Unlike a horse-race or a football match where there may be a clear favourite, the sequence of QF draws should be random, so all combinations of draws would normally get a roughly even amount of punter's money backing them. So if one stands out like a bulldog's boll*cks because it's getting ten times the number of bets than all the others, it's a sign that something dodgy is going down.

So if the draw was somehow rigged, who benefits?

Well UEFA hates English clubs (back in 1985, they just couldn't wait to use Heysel as an excuse to ban English clubs- and especially Liverpool from Europe- despite all the other key factors contributing to the tragedy- inlcuding UEFA). But United beat Roma before, and Chelski have got perhaps the easiest draw with Fenerbahce. Even if Arsenal v Liverpool guarantees one English club gets knocked out, it also guarantees one gets through to the next round. So it's swings and roundabouts. This doesn't mean the draw wasn't dodgy- just that UEFA is unlikely to have been directly responsible.

We all hate the Mancs, but Roma's no easier than some of the other teams. Fergie's not smart enough to organise this (did the bowl smell of whisky?). But what about Chelski...? They got a relatively easy draw. They're also owed by a Russian oil oligarch who is used to being able to buy what he wants and is so frustrated by Chelksi's lack of performance that he's even been interfering in team selection. Now you don't get to be a Russian oligarch without friends in low places, although proving this in court would probably be impossible. Meanwhile, the Russian mafia is known to have been involved in other betting syndicate scams overseas. And the guy doing the draw was a former Russian player (who won't be enjoying a lifestyle like John Terry now he's retired). Who would you nobble to fix the draw if you were the Russian mafia? And who might be willing to make it worth your while not only to fix the draw but make sure Chelski came out alright? Now I don't want to put 2+2+2 together and get 453.666 here. But the means and the motives to produce the result our friend Confused had heard about before the draw all point to this as a possibility at least...

*****

this guy explains the odds: (sorry dawson didn't understand urs)

*****

cascade:

Hi, guys. Sorry for bandwagoning and signing up just for this thread... I got linked here from a swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter. Congratulations on the more than 200k hits which means plenty of google-ads money. Faster server on it's way? Anyway, I figured I'd help you out with the matematics.

If I understood correctly, you guessed/predicted all the quarterfinals, but not in which order they were picked, and not which team starts at home. Let's do the calculations lsowly, so everyone can understand.

First ball can be any team. The prediction can still be valid. The second ball picked up, does however have to be the team that was predicted to play with the team in the first ball. So when picking up the second team, you will have to pick right ball out of seven possible, meaning a probability of 1/7.

Third ball can again be whichever team. Prediction is still fine. Fourth ball has to be the team predicted to play with the third team, so only one of the remaining 5 balls is ok. Probability 1/5.

In the same way, the 5:th ball can be anyone, while the 6:th ball has to be the team playing with team number 5. When picking the 6:th ball, you choose from the three balls that are left, so 1/3 to pick correctly.

Ball number 7 and 8 will automatically be paired up, and will always be according to predictions, if the first 6 balls are ok.

So total, for all that to happen you multiply the probabilities and get a total probability of

1/7 * 1/5 * 1/3 = 1/(7*5*3) = 1/105 = 0.95%

This fits well with the odds of around 200 to one, if the bookies take a rate of almost 50%... Also note that picking the second ball correctly means picking the right one out of seven balls, which could be tricky to do with heated balls.

Ok, I hope that cleared it out for some of you. Good luck in the quarterfinals.

******

******

cascade:

np.

Predicting also which team starts at home is an extra factor 1/2 for each quarterfinal, so

1/105 * (1/2)^4 = 1/1680 = 0.06%

Predicting also in which order the balls are picked, you end up at a full

1/8 * 1/7 * 1/6 * ... 1/2 * 1/1 = 1/8! = 1/40320 = 0.0025%

I think someone else said that already though.

*****

by **maguskwt** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 4:12 am

Bamaga man wrote:
holylamb2006 wrote:Looks like we'll be without Agger for the season

I'm not overly bothered, not being horrible but we have cover their now, and I reckon Skertel will be better than Danny.

don't think so mate...

by **66-1112520797** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 4:32 am

maguskwt wrote:
Bamaga man wrote:
holylamb2006 wrote:Looks like we'll be without Agger for the season

I'm not overly bothered, not being horrible but we have cover their now, and I reckon Skertel will be better than Danny.

don't think so mate...

You dont think so mate, doesnt mean your right.

Where is Stu the Red when you need him ?

Like I said before Skertel appears to be everything Agger isnt.

by **maguskwt** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 4:46 am

Bamaga man wrote:
maguskwt wrote:
Bamaga man wrote:
holylamb2006 wrote:Looks like we'll be without Agger for the season

I'm not overly bothered, not being horrible but we have cover their now, and I reckon Skertel will be better than Danny.

don't think so mate...

You dont think so mate, doesnt mean your right.

Where is Stu the Red when you need him ?

Like I said before Skertel appears to be everything Agger isnt.

remind yourself that the same logic applies to you...

by **Seano Kop** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 6:36 am

I'd say Agger is better than Skrtl, but I think Skrtl could become something big.

by **nobybob** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 7:41 am

maguskwt wrote:some new interesting posts from that thread:

******
Peter_T:

Three issues here:

a) What's the actual probability of someone guessing the four combinations of the teams?

b) What would lead the bookmakers to refuse to take punter's bets on the draw?

c) Who benefits from the draw if indeed it was rigged?

I'm afraid my maths isn't up to answering the probablility question, but I've a stong hunch that nobody's worked it out correctly yet. If you're predicting the draw of eight balls in sequence, and after each one, there's one less in the bag, then you get:
(1/8 ) x (1/7) x (1/6) x (1/5) x (1/4) x (1/3) x (1/2) x (1/1 which is redundant) which gives you 1 chance in 40320 or 0.00248 %

This gets more complicated if you're just predicting the 4 correct combinations of teams without concern for sequence, because after the initial and each subsequent pair are determined, there are only so many other combinations left in the bag- Any mathematicians out there got a formula for this?

The next issue is why do bookmakers stop taking bets on an event that meant to be random and free from fixing?
Well either the outcome of the bet appears to be so highly probable or certain that there's no longer any risk of being wrong (you'll get good odds for snow on Xmas day right now, but if there are blizzards on Xmas eve and you fancy a punt, you're out of luck); Or, there is reason to believe that a supposedly random event is in fact not random at all. That doesn't mean the bookmakers had an inside whisper about dodgy dealings in UEFA. And I think it's unlikely that rumours going around the internet would be enough on their own. The thing that spooks bookmakers is abnormal betting patterns, particularly where someone (not necessarily in the UK) is placing extremely large bets on seemingly improbable/ unpredictable events out of kilter with typical betting patterns. Unlike a horse-race or a football match where there may be a clear favourite, the sequence of QF draws should be random, so all combinations of draws would normally get a roughly even amount of punter's money backing them. So if one stands out like a bulldog's boll*cks because it's getting ten times the number of bets than all the others, it's a sign that something dodgy is going down.

So if the draw was somehow rigged, who benefits?

Well UEFA hates English clubs (back in 1985, they just couldn't wait to use Heysel as an excuse to ban English clubs- and especially Liverpool from Europe- despite all the other key factors contributing to the tragedy- inlcuding UEFA). But United beat Roma before, and Chelski have got perhaps the easiest draw with Fenerbahce. Even if Arsenal v Liverpool guarantees one English club gets knocked out, it also guarantees one gets through to the next round. So it's swings and roundabouts. This doesn't mean the draw wasn't dodgy- just that UEFA is unlikely to have been directly responsible.

We all hate the Mancs, but Roma's no easier than some of the other teams. Fergie's not smart enough to organise this (did the bowl smell of whisky?). But what about Chelski...? They got a relatively easy draw. They're also owed by a Russian oil oligarch who is used to being able to buy what he wants and is so frustrated by Chelksi's lack of performance that he's even been interfering in team selection. Now you don't get to be a Russian oligarch without friends in low places, although proving this in court would probably be impossible. Meanwhile, the Russian mafia is known to have been involved in other betting syndicate scams overseas. And the guy doing the draw was a former Russian player (who won't be enjoying a lifestyle like John Terry now he's retired). Who would you nobble to fix the draw if you were the Russian mafia? And who might be willing to make it worth your while not only to fix the draw but make sure Chelski came out alright? Now I don't want to put 2+2+2 together and get 453.666 here. But the means and the motives to produce the result our friend Confused had heard about before the draw all point to this as a possibility at least...

*****

this guy explains the odds: (sorry dawson didn't understand urs)

*****

cascade:

Hi, guys. Sorry for bandwagoning and signing up just for this thread... I got linked here from a swedish newspaper Dagens Nyheter. Congratulations on the more than 200k hits which means plenty of google-ads money. Faster server on it's way? Anyway, I figured I'd help you out with the matematics.

If I understood correctly, you guessed/predicted all the quarterfinals, but not in which order they were picked, and not which team starts at home. Let's do the calculations lsowly, so everyone can understand.

First ball can be any team. The prediction can still be valid. The second ball picked up, does however have to be the team that was predicted to play with the team in the first ball. So when picking up the second team, you will have to pick right ball out of seven possible, meaning a probability of 1/7.

Third ball can again be whichever team. Prediction is still fine. Fourth ball has to be the team predicted to play with the third team, so only one of the remaining 5 balls is ok. Probability 1/5.

In the same way, the 5:th ball can be anyone, while the 6:th ball has to be the team playing with team number 5. When picking the 6:th ball, you choose from the three balls that are left, so 1/3 to pick correctly.

Ball number 7 and 8 will automatically be paired up, and will always be according to predictions, if the first 6 balls are ok.

So total, for all that to happen you multiply the probabilities and get a total probability of

1/7 * 1/5 * 1/3 = 1/(7*5*3) = 1/105 = 0.95%

This fits well with the odds of around 200 to one, if the bookies take a rate of almost 50%... Also note that picking the second ball correctly means picking the right one out of seven balls, which could be tricky to do with heated balls.

Ok, I hope that cleared it out for some of you. Good luck in the quarterfinals.

******

******

cascade:

np.

Predicting also which team starts at home is an extra factor 1/2 for each quarterfinal, so

1/105 * (1/2)^4 = 1/1680 = 0.06%

Predicting also in which order the balls are picked, you end up at a full

1/8 * 1/7 * 1/6 * ... 1/2 * 1/1 = 1/8! = 1/40320 = 0.0025%

I think someone else said that already though.

*****

excellent post mate i think we can all agree that this must be at the very least grounds for an investigation into the draw.

And Dawson are you really a bookie mate ?? cos if you are please tell me which bookies , so i don't ever go in there if they all calculate the odds like you LOL

by **Toffeehater** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 7:41 am

The Kid Torres wrote:
Yari7 wrote:I can see Mascherano eating Fabregas alive. Mascherano is the perfect guy to have in the middle to break up Arsenals play

To be honest I thought Gattuso would eat Fabregas alive but the fact is he didn't get near him over the two legs against Milan, especially at the San Siro.

Obviously Mascherano is a better player than Gattuso and if anybody can stop Cesc from playing and dictating the game then it is he.

Flamini will probably be the one to track Gerrard and I think Mathieu is a fantastic player, and is now a vital part of Arsenal's team.

Not fantastic enough to track gerrard , gerrard was all over him at anfield earlier this season , if nows the time to stand up and be counted for the red men have to win all this 3 games against arsenal

by **Toffeehater** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 7:55 am

Yari7 wrote:The draw took place live. It is not a fix. If it was a fix, then all the club officials who were there and saw the draw take place with their own eyes must have been in on it as well.

Sky and all the other media people that were there live to see it must have been in on it.

Seriously, Liverpool fans need to wake up and face reality. We got a tough draw.

why don't u feck urself , 4 balls were in 2 containers each , the balls shud have been shuffled or rolled or whatever , instead they were just picked from their respective containers , the draw was fixed and some1 posted the exact same draw 21 hours before it .

Live or not we all know platini does not like LFC , he wanted us to face arsenal and a English team would be out , face chelsea another English team to be out , he's doing everything to avoid a all English final . Use uur brains for god's sake .

I don't give a sh!t TBH , arsenal have more to play for then us , the elague , champions league , we have less on our minds , we should beat them 3 times outta 3 if the red men stand up and be counted for , hopefully they suffer injuries along the way and their squad is not strong in dept .

by **66-1112520797** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 8:04 am

maguskwt wrote:
Bamaga man wrote:
maguskwt wrote:
Bamaga man wrote:
holylamb2006 wrote:Looks like we'll be without Agger for the season

I'm not overly bothered, not being horrible but we have cover their now, and I reckon Skertel will be better than Danny.

don't think so mate...

You dont think so mate, doesnt mean your right.

Where is Stu the Red when you need him ?

Like I said before Skertel appears to be everything Agger isnt.

remind yourself that the same logic applies to you...

Yes I know that whatever the f.uck your name is.

by **Toffeehater** » Sat Mar 15, 2008 8:17 am

Fecking arsenal arrogant cun.ts talking abt winning this adn that , talking abt how good their defence is , mentioning on their forum they'd do us like they did the 6-3 at anfield . I hope we hammer these :censored:

like manure did 4-0 at the emirates and 3-0 at anfield . And for once i hope rafa plays crouch :laugh:

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