by bigmick » Sat Mar 08, 2008 10:13 pm
Firstly apology accepted ER, well said.
On Igor's point, no we can't win the title but we do have the opportunity to get a lot closer that many of us doomer and gloomers have been predicted. Stating the obvious here a little but how close exactly will really depend on two things. Firstly of course how we go away at Man Utd and the Arsenal. Now if we were to for instance win at one of those grounds, or perish the thought both then we really could get within shouting distance. We have some motivation in that we still need to get fourth, while those games and the bitters at home apart our run-in isn't too bad. Injuries wise we are holding up pretty well, and for whatever reason be it delayed gazelle or rotation reduction, we are running into a bit of form at the right time.
The other factor which is entirely beyond our control is fuirstly how Chelsea go (and they are looking a bit like a team which could unravel at the moment) and even more importantly, how close the race for the title between Man Utd and Arsenal becomes. If for instance Man Utd have it won with five games to go, it's reasonable to assume they won't get as many points in the last five games as they will should they need to gain maximum to win it (what has become known as the "LFC factor").
Since it's a discussion board I'll make a prediction to follow up all my previous ones. The best we could possibly do under the circumstances it seems to me is about an eight point deficit and third. This would be an interesting result, and a triumph based on where it looked like we might end up. It would lead to protracted debates throughout the Summer as to where we lost it (if indeed we did) and would undoubtedly see Rafa given another season at least. FWIW at this point I should say that given the players at his disposal, this is the absolute MINIMUM of where we should have been aiming at the seasons outset IMHO.
The worst we could realistically expect from here is around an 18 point deficit and fifth. This would obviously put the manager and his methodology under huge pressure, and IMHO deservedly so.
My prediction as to where we'll end up has fluctuated as the season has progressed, but currently I think we'll get the fourth spot OK and finish around 14 point sbehind the eventual winners. This will spark many debates about where it all went wrong (if indeed it did), but my suspicion is a sustained run in the Champions League will be enough to earn the manager a fifth season.
"se e in una bottigla ed e bianco, e latte".