Liverpool FC Forum

Effes wrote:In the Racing Post:

Liverpool have scored onlyseven goals against Chelsea in their last 13 competitive meetings so how are they going to get back into the tie?

Rafael Benitez will know that it is crucial not to concede an early away goal and he won't be chasing the game from the first minute. Patience will be the name of the game and keeping a clean sheet is almost as important as scoring the opening goal.

If the Reds get caught on the counter-attack they will need a near miracle to get back into the tie. Only twice in three campaigns under Jose Mourinho have Chelsea conceded three goals in a game – away to Bayern Munich, when a 3-2 loss was enough to qualify, and in a 3-3 FA Cup quarter-final draw against Tottenham at Stamford Bridge.

Eventually, Liverpool will have to score at least onceto take the semi-final into extra-time and there are three avenues they will look to exploit. The first is down the Chelsea right, where Paulo Ferreira is a definite weak link. Secondly, Benitez will try to utilise Peter Crouch's aerial ability and if all else fails, long-distance shots from Steven Gerrard and John Arne Riise will test the brilliance of Petr Cech.

How significant is the loss of Ricardo Carvalho?

There is no question Mourinho would rather have his classy centre-back fit. Carvalho has missed eight games this season and Chelsea have won four, drawn two and lost two with four goals conceded.

It is also worth remembering that Chelsea have not lost a game this term when the defensive spine of Cech, Carvalho and John Terry have allbeen on the pitch.

How hard will Chelsea try for an away goal?

Mourinho's plan is always to score on the road in European two-legged encounters.

The only time a team managed by Mourinho has failed to score an away goal in the knockout stages of the Champions League was Chelsea's 1-0 defeat at Anfield in 2005.

However, 11 goals in nine knockout away games in the Champions League for Chelsea and Porto is excellent stuff.

Does the injury to Michael Ballack help Mourinho?

Very much so. It seemed as if Mourinho was determined to play the German despite his lack of pace and the shape of the side looks so much better without Ballack.

Chelsea now have the option of a diamond, with either Claude Makelele or John Obi Mikel protecting the back four, or Mourinho can go back to the
4-3-3 system which served them so well for two Premiership-winning seasons.

Why has Lampard never scored from open play against Liverpool?

It could just be one of those quirky stats with no real substance and
tonight might be when he breaks the duck.

However, it could be that Liverpool are simply so effective when it comes to blocking the hole between their defence and midfield, a position where Lamps usually operates.

Xabi Alonso and Javier Mascherano (or Mo Sissoko) shield Jamie Carragher and co so expertly that the best route to the Liverpool goal is around the sides.

So does that make under 2.5 goals a certainty?

Only two of the 13 competitive meetings between Chelsea and Liverpool under their current coaches have produced three goals or more in 90 minutes.

There have been just two goals in their five Champions League clashes as both coaches tend to cancel each other out.

The bad news? Layers are taking no chances with 8-15 best about two goals or fewer.

Will the roar of the Kop be a huge help to Liverpool?

There is no better atmosphere than Anfield on a big European night. The Kop definitely carried Liverpool over the line in their 2005 semi-final second-leg victory.

Benitez v Mourinho – who is the superior tactician?

Impossible to split the pair – neither team will lose because of a lack of tactical nous.

Since 2002 they have won six championships, five European titles and four domestic cup competitions.

The Verdict:

CHELSEA'S unprecedented bid for the quadruple looks to have tired their key players for the final push and Liverpool could take advantage in tonight's Champions League semi-final second leg at Anfield.

Jose Mourinho infuriated his opposite number when he claimed Liverpool had been ‘playing testimonials for weeks', but that rest may prove crucial and the home side are the bet at 6-4.

When was the last time Chelsea played well for 90 minutes? They did enough to overcome Liverpool 1-0 in last week's first leg, but it still needed a miraculous save from Petr Cech to deny Liverpool an equaliser.

It was hardly a vintage showing, and bar 45 minutes against Valencia and West Ham, it has been a case of grinding out victories, with John Terry and Frank Lampard not able to produce their best form.

Liverpool's extra energy may edge the vital midfield battle and Peter Crouch will fancy his chances in the air whether Khalid Boulahrouz or Michael Essien is selected to partner Terry at the heart of the Chelsea defence.

Crouch's knockdowns will tee up on-running midfielders, and with that in mind, John Arne Riise may be the value first goalscorer bet.

Recommendations
Liverpool, 2pts 6-4
J A Riise first goalscorer, 0.5pt each-way 20-1
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Since 2002 they have won six championships, five European titles and four domestic cup competitions.

That makes mad reading.