bigmick wrote:My point is that whichever way the season pans out, mistakes have been made already and if Rafa thinks that making six changes per game will bring success (he doesn't by the way) then he is mistaken.
I'll make a prediction here and now, when we do start winning football matches consistently the run will coincide with Rafa picking a settled team. Before some wag comes on here and says that it's ninety odd games since he hasn't changed the team, I know. I reiterate, nobody to the best of my knowledge is suggesting that you play the same team in absolutely every single game. What I am suggesting is that wholesale changes every game for no reason are a mistake.
Okay, so I've had a look at our team selections (again) and it seems clear that the biggest changes to the teamsheet have come for our Champions League qualifiers (8 against MH in Ukraine!) and group stage games (6 against PSV; 5 against Galatasaray). I'll elaborate more on this below but it suggests to me that Rafa is finally moving toward having distinctlly different CL and Prem teams, albeit with a lot of overlap down the spine of the side.
Settled back fours become stronger. Settled midfield quartets play with more fluency. Strikers in a run of form like to play as much as they can, that's the way it has always been. Almost always, right-footed players like to play either in the centre or on the right-hand side. Almost always, you work out where is the best and most effective position for your best player to play and pick your team accordingly around that presumption.
No question but there have been some unique challenges this season--some of which Rafa has dealt with well, others poorly, IMO. The emergence of Agger has presented a significant obstacle to the "play a settled back four" tactic. Initially, introduced as a stand-in for the injured Carragher, Agger has performed exceptionally well and has forced his way into the side, most frequently at Sami's expense. Some may call for Rafa to be brutal now and drop Sami for Agger but, for whatever reason, Rafa seems more interested in rotating those two in both the league and the CL. We'll have to see how that develops as we go this campaign. At LB, had Aurelio deputized for Riise as convincingly as Agger has done for Carragher, we might see a similar rotation policy. As it stands, however, JAR has been selected for virtually every game that he's been fit for, suggesting that he is still the first-choice LB. Nonetheless, his extended absence has contributed to an unsettled back four, because Aurelio and Warnock have both occupied the position to varying effect.
The midfield seems to be the biggest mess at the moment, primarily because the LM position is problematic. Selection patterns indicate that Alonso and Sissoko are undoubtedly Rafa's nailed on first choice CM pairing. Stevie would be equally entrenched on the right were it not clear that Rafa has more faith in Pennant for tough away matches than he does in any of his LM options. This has led him to play Stevie on the left--a mistake in my mind because it narrows the scope of Stevie's impact slightly and messes with the balance and fluency of the team greatly. I think it would be better to blood Gonzales or Aurelio at LM for a run of games or bite the bullet and put Garcia out there, defensive lapses or no.
Up front, I think Rafa has been fairly consistent: Bellamy and Kuyt have started more games than anyone of our strikers, despite Bellamy's goal drought and Crouch's torrid form. Ironically, this is one area where Rafa has not chopped and changed much since Kuyt's arrival.
The thing is, Rafa realises this as well. Since the silliness of the first couple of matches he has tried to pick a more settled eleven.
Yes, a more settled side is emerging if you look at the selections over the course of the season to date. For League games, the side generally looks like this:
Reina
Finnan Carragher Hyypia/Agger Riise
Gerrard Alonso Sissoko ??
Bellamy Kuyt
In particular, Gerrard's started 4 league games on the right, 2 on the left and one in the middle (when Sissoko was injured). I think Rafa sees Stevie as his RM in the league and has only swapped him to the left for really tough, physical away games because of his doubts about his other LM options in those circumstances.
For Champions League games, the following pattern may be emerging (although it is still a bit early to tell and I think Rafa approaches the group stage differently than the qualifying stage):
Reina
Finnan Carragher Agger/Hyypia ??
Pennant Alonso Gerrard/Sissoko ??
Crouch/Bellamy Kuyt
Note that Pennant has played every CL game so far. By contrast, Stevie's played two. For those who think Rafa's focusing on the CL at the expense of the league, this stat suggests the opposite to me: he will gamble resting his key players in the qualifiers and group stages of the CL in order to have them available for tough league matches (Chelsea right after PSV and Bolton right after Galatasaray, for example). It also suggests that Rafa is prepared to field a slightly different side in the CL: one with more width and attacking flair through the middle (by moving Stevie back to CM when he has played). Still early days yet but a pattern seems to be emerging.
Despite what the scientists of the game tell us, each game is not played in isolation. Mess up the selection in one game and miss out on a victory and it carries over to the next game. Concede an equalising goal in the dying seconds of one home game and you can bet you'll be desperately hanging on in the final minutes of the next match, "oh no not again" is the anxious cry of the crowd and it filters down to the players. Don't win your first away game, which should have been an absolute penalty kick fixture and it carries forward into your next away game or three.
Totally agree but don't think the problem is simply down to rotation.
What irks me most is that Rafa knows himself I am sure that he has contributed to a poor start with his tinkering. Obviously, International breaks and the aftermath of the world Cup have had a disruptive effect but given that, is the answer to mess around with the team and positions unnecessarily?
We are still paying a heavy price for the daft selections in the Sheffield United and Macabi Haifa home game in my view.
You and I have been through this one so I won't rehash at length here. Suffice to say that, while I agree with your analyses of where those two matches went wrong (and team selection was part of the problem), I still contend that the teams put out in each of those matches had the quality to win comfortably and yet failed to. So, as far as I'm concerned, indifferent form and mental lapses on the part of the players, has more to do with how we've gotten out of the blocks than does some of Rafa's selection puzzlers.
But, heck, that's why this debate is so fun: the issues involved are complex, heavily entangled and worth a careful going over.
