Top four. - It's a case of setting your stall out.

Liverpool Football Club - General Discussion

Postby bigmick » Tue Sep 14, 2010 9:30 am

One or two posters have alluded to the feeling we are already out of league contention as Chelsea have 12 points. The bad news is, we are. We are not going to gain seven points on them over the next 34 matches. In that sense, Roy has surpassed even his predesessors knack for being out of the league early, 4 games is quick even by our standards.

That said, realistically we weren't going to win it this time anyway. You don 't go from 7th to Champions, and getting in the top four and back into the Champions League was always the summit of our league ambitions if we're being serious.

Once you accept that, then obviously assuming Chelsea, man Utd and Arsenal are going to get in there, and once you accept (which I have :( ) that my prediction of Man City winning the league isn't going to happen, then realitically we are competing with Man City, Spurs and possibly Villa/Everton/Birmingham for fourth. As such, as long as we finish above them, mwe're in.

Lets then have a look at the current league table amongst our mini league (getting a bit Tompkinesque here :laugh: but bear with me).

1. Birmingham pl 4   pnts 6
2. Villa pl 4     pnts 6
3. City pl 4   pnts 5
4. Spurs pl 4   pnts 5
5. Liverpool pl 4   pnts 5



So looking at that, we are right in the mix and we've had a more than tasty start. If we then look at how well you have to do to come fourth, well four seasons ago Arsenal got 68 points, three seasons ago we got 76, two seasons ago Arsenal got 72, and last season Spurs got 70.

As usaal, it's not avoiding defeat which counts, it's winning. Spurs lost 10 league matches last season (which was only 1 less than us), yet still got 70 points. Clearly it won't be easy for us to win at Old Trafford, but equally clearly if we can rack up some points in the winnable games 6-10 then we could be looking quite good.

Spurs despite having a relatively easy start have stuttered (Champions League hangover) while Villa simply don't look good enough to me. Everton and Birmingham are decent but probably light squad wise, which means almost certainly Man City are going to be our main rivals IMHO. Unfortunately for us, the only game they played well in was against us, but they are in the Europa league as well and will take it seriously.

For me, we should be setting our stall out here and now for fourth. Attack and defend in games with 75 points being the target. Get anywhere near that, and we'll be in IMHO.
Last edited by bigmick on Tue Sep 14, 2010 9:31 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Postby jacdaniel » Tue Sep 14, 2010 9:43 am

We're not out of the league yet Mick.  Chelsea have a very simple opening 5 fixtures.  They should have 15 points next week.  but they will have to play more difficult opponents soon and im sure they will drop points. The best way to get into the top 4 is to challenge for the league as long as possible and then evaluate were we are in a few weeks time.   

but i don't think we'll win the league or even come close so i do agree that its between us, City and Spurs for 4th.  (maybe Arsenal too).

Ill need to wait for a few more games before i can get an idea of how we'll do.
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Postby Benny The Noon » Tue Sep 14, 2010 9:53 am

Spurs, Man City etc having poor starts with relatively easy games has helped us out a fair bit - they have dropped easy points while we have had a tough start - if the players can play to their ability and the top players can hit a good run of form then we can be up there with them challenging for a CL place which be a great result - we got to take the bull by the horns when we get past the Man Utd game and get a run of wins going to improve confidence - we have the players and ability to sneak into the top 4 - hopefully spurs and man city will keep tripping over each other and leave the door open for us .
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Postby matt_liverpool » Tue Sep 14, 2010 9:57 am

Benny The Noon wrote:Spurs, Man City etc having poor starts with relatively easy games has helped us out a fair bit - they have dropped easy points while we have had a tough start - if the players can play to their ability and the top players can hit a good run of form then we can be up there with them challenging for a CL place which be a great result - we got to take the bull by the horns when we get past the Man Utd game and get a run of wins going to improve confidence - we have the players and ability to sneak into the top 4 - hopefully spurs and man city will keep tripping over each other and leave the door open for us .

First ever agreement between us.  :D
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Postby stmichael » Tue Sep 14, 2010 10:19 am

If Chelsea keep Essien fit, they'll walk the league imo. United just aren't strong enough defensively. Arsenal are always just short and they will be again due to the failure to sign a top class goalkeeper and injuries to key players setting in already.

After that as you sadi it'll be a major scrap for fourth. I think Spurs overachieved massively last season. They've lost Dawson, Modric and Dawson to injuries and their squad will be tested to the limit. I actually think the Champions League will prove a distraction for them as they never had any European competition at all last season and could concentrate on the league. City will be there or there abouts due to the size of their squad but the likes of Villa and Everton are far too inconsistent, a bit like us.

As we've said, we've had the hardest start out of anybody fixtures wise which is hardly ideal when you've got a new manager in and several new players. I've been severely underwhelmed so far but I'm not going to make a judgement on the manager until 10-12 games in. By then we'll have played some more winnable fixtures against Sunderland, Blackpool, Blacburn and Bolton.
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Postby tubby » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:38 pm

I think it's possible but were really clutching at straws if we think we can get 4th. Ok City and Spurs are stuttering, I don't think it will last the whole season with City, they have too many good players for that to happen. Then again we've not really seen anything like this before with City so who knows.

Spurs are the only team I can see struggling what with CL commitments. Even then when you look at how we struggled against B'Ham the other day along with the lack of balance in the team and still no decent backup for Torres, it just makes it look all the more unlikely that we will finish in the top 4.
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Postby bigmick » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:51 pm

bavlondon wrote:I think it's possible but were really clutching at straws if we think we can get 4th.

:laugh: Way to go Bav, keep being positive mate.
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Postby 7_Kewell » Tue Sep 14, 2010 12:52 pm

Spurs wont finish in the top four…in fact, I’m going to bet that they will LOSE every single league game that follows a midweek champions league tie.

Man city won’t finish up there either and i wouldn’t be surprised to see their manager sacked by Easter.

I’m confident we’ll finish 4th…no higher and no lower.
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Postby tubby » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:02 pm

bigmick wrote:
bavlondon wrote:I think it's possible but were really clutching at straws if we think we can get 4th.

:laugh: Way to go Bav, keep being positive mate.

Im positive Torres will score 20+ goals but as far as overall team goals go I don't think we will get 4th. Sorry if it doesn't fit in with your idea mate.  :D
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Postby bigmick » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:13 pm

bavlondon wrote:
bigmick wrote:
bavlondon wrote:I think it's possible but were really clutching at straws if we think we can get 4th.

:laugh: Way to go Bav, keep being positive mate.

Im positive Torres will score 20+ goals but as far as overall team goals go I don't think we will get 4th. Sorry if it doesn't fit in with your idea mate.  :D

No need to be sorry Bav, I actually applaud your honesty and only wish some others would follow. You admit that you'd sack the manager at the first opportunity, you admit that you still are in love with the previous manager, and you think we've got no chance of coming fourth.

Least your saying it how you see it mate I'll give you that.
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Postby matt_liverpool » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:17 pm

bavlondon wrote:
bigmick wrote:
bavlondon wrote:I think it's possible but were really clutching at straws if we think we can get 4th.

:laugh: Way to go Bav, keep being positive mate.

Im positive Torres will score 20+ goals but as far as overall team goals go I don't think we will get 4th. Sorry if it doesn't fit in with your idea mate.  :D

sorry to interrupt your discussion but atm I can't even see us scoring 20+ goal in a season, let alone Torres.  :D

You may continue now.  :D
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Postby Johnny Boy » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:30 pm

Difficult to say at the moment, I don't think we will finish top 4 , having said that some of our rivals haven't had a good start either.

I think Chelsea are going to win the league by more points than most would expect, after all if we lose against Utd and they beat Blackpool we are 10 behind, I have the Mancs second, Arsenal third and City purely by their squad and spending power will be fourth.

I reckon we will finish 5th or 6th depending on if we can finish above Spurs.
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Postby bigmick » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:36 pm

Unfortunately for us, the Mancs will see the game against us as an absolute MUST win, and incredibly the truth is that for them it probably is. Chelsea will win again this weekend, and I think a draw against us would put the Mancs six behind and floundering. Painful as it is to admit it, in our situation it's the kind of game where we've really got nothing to lose. We can still come fourth comfortably even if we don't win at the likes of Man Utd and Chelsea, but obviously anything would be a bonus.
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Postby Redangel » Tue Sep 14, 2010 1:52 pm

I actually think we can make 4th but only if, and it's a big IF , Roy is more positive than he was on Sunday.

If he continues with negative tactics and keeps bigging up the opposition the negativity will affect the players. He should employ some

Shankly tactics and dismiss ALL opponents as not worthy to clean their boots. Tell them their world beaters and who knows.

It worked OK for Shanks .
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Postby Igor Zidane » Tue Sep 14, 2010 2:21 pm

Think we'll get relegated meself . How 's that for positive .  :D And if Rafa was in charge we would have finished fifth from bottom .  :cool:
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