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[jonnymac1979]

This way to Euro glory

Chelsea could win the Champions League trophy they crave, but Paul Wilson predicts they will take their eye off the ball in the league

Sunday August 13, 2006
The Observer

The new Premiership season starts in less than a week, not a moment too soon for all those traumatised by England's wretched performances in Germany. There are thought to be at least three dozen victims of class-gulf syndrome, mostly football correspondents and television pundits who made fools of themselves by bigging up England's players on the basis of their domestic reputations, only to be left shocked and speechless when they failed to make any impression on the world stage.

That seems to be the extent of the damage, however. Apart from those of us with professional credibility to rebuild, the rest of English football appears set to carry on as if the World Cup was just a mirage. Why worry about Owen Hargreaves, the only player who does not appear in the Premiership, being voted England's most valuable performer when Manchester United can afford to spend £18m on Michael Carrick, the anonymous midfielder whom Hargreaves was generally agreed to have outshone? Why worry about England's pale showing when the net effect was the national team climbing to fifth place in the Fifa world rankings?

Italy might have some of the best players in the world and it is true that even the ones caught up in the Juventus scandal unanimously shunned the Premiership and opted for clubs in Latin countries, but can there really be much wrong with English football when players such as Michael Ballack, Andriy Shevchenko, Thierry Henry, Xabi Alonso, Benni McCarthy, Cristiano Ronaldo, Tomas Rosicky and perhaps even Franck Ribery will be plying their trade here in the coming months?

If the answer is yes - and it might be, given that unlimited spending power and over-reliance on foreign talent are not unconditional benefits - you might be hard-pressed to spot the problem once the season gets under way. Specifically, just under a month from now, on the second weekend in September, when the considerably extended capacities of Old Trafford, Ashburton Grove, St James' Park and Stamford Bridge host home games, the top flight of English football could see its biggest overall gate for decades.

If full, those four grounds alone would house almost a quarter of a million spectators. Throw in a Merseyside derby at Everton on the same weekend, plus the possibility of gates of more than 30,000 at Sheffield United and West Ham, and the total figure for the 10 Premiership games could surpass 400,000.

An average attendance in excess of 40,000 per game has not happened since the early 1970s and would be envied all over Europe, especially in Italy, where Serie A gates have been conspicuously poor for several seasons and are unlikely to recover with Juventus in the second division. The Bundesliga can match the English attendance figures, but at far lower ticket prices.

Were there any justice in the world, or were World Cups a reliable barometer of domestic health, Italian football would be looking forward to a bumper season and England would be preparing for a slump. Neither looks likely, although with big-city clubs such as Birmingham, Leeds and Sunderland in the Championship and relative minnows Reading and Watford in the Premiership, the lack of competitiveness in the top flight could be a major talking point by Christmas.

Television executives are worried that too many games sound like turn-offs, although in box-office terms the clubs have never had it so good. Some of the attendances from the boom years between the two world wars were huge, but rarely right across the board. And modern spectators are not paying just a few pennies for the dubious privilege of standing on a crowded paddock. They are paying small fortunes for guaranteed seats, season tickets, food, drink and the full range of corporate facilities.

Short of putting up their prices to even more eye-watering levels, it is hard to see how clubs could have made much more money this coming season if England had come back from Germany waving the trophy from an open-top bus. The idea that winning a World Cup gives a game a shot in the arm seems to work only in minority sports such as rugby and cricket, and even then not infallibly. It is debatable whether winning in Germany would have done as much for the game in this country as losing in the semi-finals in Turin did 16 years ago. English football needed a boost in 1990. It is not exactly languishing in the doldrums at the moment and were the game to get any more exposed, take up any more television time or any more sections of newspapers there would be a serious danger of overkill.

England winning the World Cup would, of course, have made us all feel better about ourselves and put an extra spring in our step, but we will just have to hope Chelsea can produce the same effect by lifting the European Cup. Only joking. Chelsea winning the Champions League, in addition to the domestic title, would merely fan the flames of the debate about what is meant by English football and whether there is something rotten at the core of it.

The general distaste for the way Roman Abramovich made his money and the way in which Chelsea throw it around mean most people will be hoping Jose Mourinho's team get their comeuppance again in Europe this season, even if that might spell the end for a capable and characterful manager.

It is quite hard to feel patriotic about Chelsea, unless you happen to be Andy Gray, but on the other hand it is beginning to get tiresome having to support Barcelona or whomever when the English champions are playing in Europe. Particularly when Chelsea still harbour a nucleus of English players that now includes the England captain in John Terry, who must have a great chance of emulating Steven Gerrard's achievement of two years ago and getting English hands on the European Cup. Some observers feel that Abramovich might turn his attention to something else once he has fulfilled his ambition of winning the Champions League, leaving Chelsea broadly solvent but saddled with a lifestyle they can no longer support. This seems way too optimistic - for all anyone knows it might be Abramovich's ambition to win the Champions League 10 times over - but for the sake of something different it would be good to see two wishes come true this season. The first is that Chelsea concentrate on Europe to the extent of taking their eye off the ball in the Premiership, just as in Sir Alex Ferguson's dreams - not that Manchester United look best-placed to take advantage. The other is that Chelsea do not meet Barcelona in the Champions League until the final in Athens.

As far as the Premiership season goes, it is impossible sensibly to suggest anyone other than Chelsea will finish champions, but sensible is for wusses. Everyone suggested exactly the same a year ago, and everyone got it right. Ah, but did anyone else tell you last August that Liverpool would finish third, Tottenham fifth and Charlton thirteenth? Thought not.

You could also read on these pages last year that Bolton would finish eighth, Everton eleventh and West Brom twentieth, all just one place out. But that is only half the story.

You can do anything with selected statistics, even make yourself look clairvoyant. What honesty compels me to tell you is that I also said Wigan would go down, Aston Villa and Birmingham would finish in the top half and Sunderland would prove to be the new Bolton. Not to mention having England down to reach at least the semi-finals of the World Cup.

Who's finishing where - Paul Wilson's 2006-2007 Premiership final table

1 Liverpool Will be going all out for the title this season, to judge by Wednesday's Champions League qualifier, and they can get under Chelsea's skin.

2 Chelsea Will be putting everything into Europe this year. We hope.

3 Arsenal Tomas Rosicky, the new Dennis Bergkamp.

4 Spurs New, improved lasagne recipe.

5 Manchester United Where are the goals going to come from?

6 Everton Andy Johnson a big success.

7 Blackburn Mark Hughes puts down a marker for possible Old Trafford vacancy.

8 Bolton Steady, but no surprises.

9 Newcastle Happy to be mid-table.

10 Aston Villa On the up, maybe a Carling Cup final in a season or two.

11 Middlesbrough Gareth Southgate may struggle, but still a well-run club with good players.

12 West Ham Can't possibly match last season's success. Can they?

13 Portsmouth Wild stab in the dark. Could fi nish anywhere.

14 Charlton Iain Dowie finds going tough at fi rst but fi nishes strongly. Just so people notice there's a new manager.

15 Wigan Due a relegation struggle.

16 Manchester City Due a relegation scare.

17 Sheffield United Neil Warnock is a good manager and he has not waited all this time to go straight back down.

18 Watford Down in last-day drama.

19 Fulham Chris Coleman has his work cut out.

20 Reading The new Sunderland.

Tips for the top and bottom

Amy Lawrence

Who'll finish second? Manchester United to lead the chase again, but Arsenal could pip them considering how much they love cosying up to Chelsea. Going down: Neil Warnock and Aidy Boothroyd will inspire team spirit and workrate, but that won't save Sheffield United and Watford. Fulham will join them. Players to watch: Dimitar Berbatov and Tomas Rosicky can ensure Michael Ballack doesn't hog all the Bild headlines.

Jamie Jackson

Who'll finish second? Liverpool. Craig Bellamy and Jermaine Pennant are good signings. If they manage a win at Chelsea in five weeks' time then who knows... Going down: Wigan. Jimmy Bullard has gone, Pascal Chimbonda is off; , Emile Heskey is in. Paul Jewell will probably be poached . Also Reading and Sheffield United. Players to watch: Tom Huddlestone, Spurs' 19-year-old defender, may benefit from Ledley King's injury.

Marcus Christenson

Who'll finish second? Manchester United. They did it last season without any decent midfielders and should challenge Chelsea with Paul Scholes back and Michael Carrick signed. Even without Ruud van Nistelrooy. Going down: Charlton, Sheffield United and Watford. Players to watch: Arsenal's Tomas Rosicky - a brilliant, quick-thinking player - plus Tottenham's Dimitar Berbatov and Mark Gonzalez, the tricky South American winger at Liverpool.