Liverpool FC Forum

[JC_81]

It's still difficult to fathom what has happened to us this season.  Or is it?  For me the signs were there with a horrendous pre-season, the bad taste of the Alonso deal and a creaking defence at the tail end of last season.  Throw in the Gerrard court case, his complete loss of form, Torres' injury problems, our failure to buy cover for him, Carra's supposed decline, the invisible Italian big money buy and the 17 million quid right back who 'can't defend' and you have a crisis.  Top it all off with a manager who some feel has 'lost it' and some awful early season results and you have a serious situation.  And I haven't even mentioned the owners yet.

Did this group of players peak last season?  Did they just overachieve last season?  Or are we just having horrendous luck at the moment?  Our decline has been multifactorial.  But it has also been exaggerated.  Spurs and Villa are apparently having great seasons and Man City have outspent every club in Europe, yet despite 'how bad' we are, we're still probably favourites to finish ahead of all of them given our run in.  It's bad, but it's not that bad.

Torres is almost fully fit, Gerrard is finding form, Mascherano is playing well, Carra is playing well again, Agger is fit for once, Johnson is almost back, Benayoun is back and we have one of the best keepers in the world.  The recent signs are good.  The performances aren't, but the passion is there and I can only see us getting stronger.

So what is a good season from here?  Fourth place is minimum requirement.  But talk of us falling into midtable obscurity and being stripped of our assets if we finish 5th or 6th is nonsense.  It won't happen.  The club is too well supported and we have too many good players on the books to let that happen.  If we do finish fourth then I for one would have taken that at Christmas considering how things were looking.  We still have a chance of a trophy too.  It may be rubbished as second rate (and it is second rate compared to CL), but it would be a nice end to a disappointing season.

Let's not brush the problems under the carpet though (I'm not Paul Tomkins).  There are serious, serious deficiencies in the squad that need to be addressed in the summer while question marks still surround the manager's position and the owners.  Make no bones about it though, if we recover and take fourth this season and even get to a European final (you never know), then for me it shows that this squad (or most of it) still has resilience and fight to come again next season.

[tubby]

Good post JC.

I don't really know what to think of last season. Looking back now it's sad to think we could have won it had it not been for a handful of converted wins from draws.

Those deficiencies definitely need to be addressed in the summer though. We cannot risk being exposed again next season as we have done this season. I just wonder though if we will be making up the numbers with freebies or bringing in some quality too. With the teams around us especially City looking strong it's important we bring in more quality. And City are sure to strengthen even more in the summer no matter who is in charge there.

I think if everyone stays fit there is no reason why we cannot 1) Win the Europa league and 2) finish 4th or better. I know it doesn't make up for not trying for the league or getting dumped out of the European Cup but like you say it shows character and I know on our day we are a match for anyone.

[lakes10]

I a big way we got unlucky last year, we could have won the prem most years with them points.
as for this year all the top teams are slipping up, we have been so far but in truth it would only take a few bad results for the top 3 and we could be back in the running to win it.

the smaller teams have found a way to beat the big teams, they try to kick the out of us and dont care if they go a goal down, years ago they would have given up but now they still think the can get a result

[Sir Roger]

It's still difficult to fathom what has happened to us this season.  Or is it?  For me the signs were there with a horrendous pre-season, the bad taste of the Alonso deal and a creaking defence at the tail end of last season.  Throw in the Gerrard court case, his complete loss of form, Torres' injury problems, our failure to buy cover for him, Carra's supposed decline, the invisible Italian big money buy and the 17 million quid right back who 'can't defend' and you have a crisis.  Top it all off with a manager who some feel has 'lost it' and some awful early season results and you have a serious situation.  And I haven't even mentioned the owners yet.

Did this group of players peak last season?  Did they just overachieve last season?  Or are we just having horrendous luck at the moment?  Our decline has been multifactorial.  But it has also been exaggerated.  Spurs and Villa are apparently having great seasons and Man City have outspent every club in Europe, yet despite 'how bad' we are, we're still probably favourites to finish ahead of all of them given our run in.  It's bad, but it's not that bad.

Torres is almost fully fit, Gerrard is finding form, Mascherano is playing well, Carra is playing well again, Agger is fit for once, Johnson is almost back, Benayoun is back and we have one of the best keepers in the world.  The recent signs are good.  The performances aren't, but the passion is there and I can only see us getting stronger.

So what is a good season from here?  Fourth place is minimum requirement.  But talk of us falling into midtable obscurity and being stripped of our assets if we finish 5th or 6th is nonsense.  It won't happen.  The club is too well supported and we have too many good players on the books to let that happen.  If we do finish fourth then I for one would have taken that at Christmas considering how things were looking.  We still have a chance of a trophy too.  It may be rubbished as second rate (and it is second rate compared to CL), but it would be a nice end to a disappointing season.

Let's not brush the problems under the carpet though (I'm not Paul Tomkins).  There are serious, serious deficiencies in the squad that need to be addressed in the summer while question marks still surround the manager's position and the owners.  Make no bones about it though, if we recover and take fourth this season and even get to a European final (you never know), then for me it shows that this squad (or most of it) still has resilience and fight to come again next season.

I think its plain for anyone to see that its more the way we have been playing rather than the players. Players who have got the beating of the mancs, spurs, the bitters twice and villa tells us we are capable. But the defeats to the likes of portsmouth, sunderland and fulham tells us we have not been playing in the right manner. Hopefully we have turned the mystical corner and start playing to our strengths like we did at the end of last season

[DrPepe]

good post - i think the time is right for a re-evaluation

i'm a bit of a pessimist regarding CL qual tbh, but i still think rafa is the best option to take us forward - he is setting up the youth/reserves and we seem to be attracting a lot of the best youngsters to the club and i hope they will come to fruition esp as we are unable to invest in first team players at the moment

i don't hold out much hope for the uefa either - its a no-win situation for us really: if we win the thing then the cup is 2nd-rate junk (not my opinion), and if we get knocked out then its another liverpool crisis.

So basically, i predict no trophy and a 5th place in the league - bloody awfulyou might think, but given the club circumstances and consider that the only manager in the league who has doen better than rafa in their first 5 years or so is Wenger then I think that Rafa deserves more time 

[7_Kewell]

Talk of us falling into midtable obscurity and being stripped of our assets if we finish 5th or 6th is nonsense.  It won't happen.  The club is too well supported and we have too many good players on the books to let that happen. 

I remember Leeds fans saying this...

[boodiddy1]

C'mon Lakes! If the top three slip a few we have a chance? Not even the most eternal optimist could really say that without laughing. No club in this day and age is free from financial ruin. But, I dont think we are that bad. Leeds and Pomp overspent. We haven't. Our debt, regardless of what the media says is, "manageable".

I think our probs have been quite a few reasons. Injury and loss of form to good players hasn't helped. They are getting better. But, the main reason for me has been Rafa. If you look at the big matches, he has picked a team that has strength to compete, yet also the big players have been able to counter-attack and snatch victories.

Yet, when we play the smaller teams, rafa picks so many unusual looking teams that it isnt hard to realise that we aren't going to win them. Sunderland away, forget the beach ball incident, we deserved nothing out of that game. Pompey away, Jesus thats it!

Is reliance on two holdong mids continuously hinders us. Not to mention that one of them is poor. Yes Lucas, a poor footballer in my eyes. He cant continue in their. Not good enough im afraid. Sissoko and Masch would of been miles better. But, rafa never let Momo recover.  Aquaman should go in there now. A good pre-season, strength conditioning should also help. Wingers??? Riera has gone backwards, Maxi only in certain games. Babel??? No No No. So we've gotta find a good winger.

can we recover next year to challenge? I dont think we can. Maybe, not being in CL next year will be a blessing. Barca did it a few years back and reverted to bringing some youth team players through. The dutch left remember and hungry Barca kids came on. Now, do we have enough talent to be able to do that? There is great promise in our youth and reserve teams. So, only time and chance will tell. We've so many naturally gifted footballers not make the grade because they weren't given chance to develop at the highest level.

Pacheco, Kelly, Insua, Amoo, Nemeth, Ince and a few others have great potential. Have we as club got the balls to give them a season. IE: focus on another 2/3 year plan? Or will Gerrard, Torres etc demand we go for it? If we sign players, who should we go for? I'd like to Kjear, cissoko for defence. Failanni in mid (that'd them off) and another striker to help/replace (injured) Torres. Filling that role behind Torres? Give Pacheco a chance. Allows us to use Stevie down the right again. He might not like it, but he was good there!

Its gonna be interesting to see.

[Owzat]

Did this group of players peak last season?  Did they just overachieve last season?  Or are we just having horrendous luck at the moment?  Our decline has been multifactorial.  But it has also been exaggerated. 

I think rather than an 'exaggerated decline' we overachieved last season, thanks to getting carried away by a good start which was littered with late goals and helping red cards. We also got the breaks and results against Chelsea and the mancs, we would not usually get 12 points from them but last season we did and knock that down by 6-9 points as can be a generous 'norm' for us and our tally then would have been 80 or less, back much closer to our usual standard.

We had was it nine or ten red cards shown against opponents last season, helping in wins over the mancs, Wigan and citeh to name but three. We only just squeezed past boro at home having trailled late on and by virtue of an own goal and a late late Gerrard winner. Wasn't our away winner against Chelsea a deflected Alonso shot? Our win over Standard Liege was by the grace of god Kuyt after over 180 goalless minutes.

Sure we had our moments last season, but I think two key things meant our fans got carried away - the inflated points tally, as I point out every so often was somewhat inflated with some fortune, and the recency effect, where some will think we were fantastic because our spell towards the end of the season was (and fantastic in terms of football played) But you can counter a lot of the end of the season with the scrappy start, unbeaten and top at the start but seven of our first 10 games were won by one goal margins, we drew 0-0 with Stoke and villa and our only win by more than one goal in the league by the time spudz beat us was against the bitters (2-0)

We picked up, won the odd game against ordinary to poor sides very easily, but we do that most seasons. Between Newcastle away (28/12) and the Madrid game (10/03) we struggled and it derailled our title challenge which was arguably grounded on some fortune to start the season. Even our welcome home 2-0 win over Chelsea came after they had a player sent off and courtesy of poor keeping from Cech

So last season might be best summed up thus, doubles over the mancs and Chelsea, a lot of help from red cards and some scrappy narrow wins including some late winners and coming from behind.

This season might be best summed up sloppy defensively, no poke up front and the red cards of 08/09 are evening themselves out with the wins just as scrappy.


And I discount the injuries excuse, as I've pointed out before some of those used include Torres who'd scored less goals by this stage anyway, Gerrard likewise and Benayoun

PREMIERSHIP APPS/GOALS AFTER 28 GAMES

09/10 Kuyt - 9 goals in 28 apps
08/09 Kuyt - 7 goals in 28 apps

09/10 Torres - 13 goals in 17 apps
08/09 Torres - 8 goals in 15 apps

09/10 Gerrard - 6 goals in 23 apps
08/09 Gerrard - 9 goals in 24 apps

09/10 Benayoun - 5 goals in 22 apps
08/09 Benayoun - 3 goals in 24 apps

So Torres has played MORE GAMES this season, Gerrard about the same but scored three less goals, Benayoun has played a couple of games less but has scored more goals and Kuyt has played the same number and scored more goals - although the way many criticise him you'd think he hadn't scored this season, laid on a goal or anything. It isn't all about goals, what about defenders :-

09/10 Johnson - 17 apps
08/09 Arbeloa - 21 apps

09/10 Reina - 28 apps
08/09 Reina - 28 apps

09/10 Carragher - 27 apps
08/09 Carragher - 28 apps

09/10 Skrtel - 19 apps
08/09 Skrtel - 15 apps

09/10 Mascherano - 25 apps
08/09 Mascherano - 18 apps

09/10 Agger - 15 apps
08/09 Agger - 10 apps

I haven't included Aurelio although it is 18-14 in favour of 09/10 as Insua seems 1st choice these days, probably Rafa sees little difference in ability/performance and Insua has gotten over his early season error strewn performances

While some may say not to mention Alonso (any more), I think he is the key difference and a big mistake selling him. Maybe none of us could have realised it at the time, but the £10m difference/gain from selling Alonso and buying Aquilani has had a much more significant (negative) impact on the team. You make your own luck, the problem isn't so much luck as lack of adventure and killing off games. How many games have we lost or drawn having scored first?!? Is it 'bad luck' that we didn't score two goals in a cup game until the 12th attempt?!?!? (especially given Debrecen twice, Leeds and Reading twice were among the 11 games so not exactly European giants)

[DrPepe]

Did this group of players peak last season?  Did they just overachieve last season?  Or are we just having horrendous luck at the moment?  Our decline has been multifactorial.  But it has also been exaggerated. 

I think rather than an 'exaggerated decline' we overachieved last season, thanks to getting carried away by a good start which was littered with late goals and helping red cards. We also got the breaks and results against Chelsea and the mancs, we would not usually get 12 points from them but last season we did and knock that down by 6-9 points as can be a generous 'norm' for us and our tally then would have been 80 or less, back much closer to our usual standard.

We had was it nine or ten red cards shown against opponents last season, helping in wins over the mancs, Wigan and citeh to name but three. We only just squeezed past boro at home having trailled late on and by virtue of an own goal and a late late Gerrard winner. Wasn't our away winner against Chelsea a deflected Alonso shot? Our win over Standard Liege was by the grace of god Kuyt after over 180 goalless minutes.

Sure we had our moments last season, but I think two key things meant our fans got carried away - the inflated points tally, as I point out every so often was somewhat inflated with some fortune, and the recency effect, where some will think we were fantastic because our spell towards the end of the season was (and fantastic in terms of football played) But you can counter a lot of the end of the season with the scrappy start, unbeaten and top at the start but seven of our first 10 games were won by one goal margins, we drew 0-0 with Stoke and villa and our only win by more than one goal in the league by the time spudz beat us was against the bitters (2-0)

We picked up, won the odd game against ordinary to poor sides very easily, but we do that most seasons. Between Newcastle away (28/12) and the Madrid game (10/03) we struggled and it derailled our title challenge which was arguably grounded on some fortune to start the season. Even our welcome home 2-0 win over Chelsea came after they had a player sent off and courtesy of poor keeping from Cech

So last season might be best summed up thus, doubles over the mancs and Chelsea, a lot of help from red cards and some scrappy narrow wins including some late winners and coming from behind.

This season might be best summed up sloppy defensively, no poke up front and the red cards of 08/09 are evening themselves out with the wins just as scrappy.


And I discount the injuries excuse, as I've pointed out before some of those used include Torres who'd scored less goals by this stage anyway, Gerrard likewise and Benayoun

PREMIERSHIP APPS/GOALS AFTER 28 GAMES

09/10 Kuyt - 9 goals in 28 apps
08/09 Kuyt - 7 goals in 28 apps

09/10 Torres - 13 goals in 17 apps
08/09 Torres - 8 goals in 15 apps

09/10 Gerrard - 6 goals in 23 apps
08/09 Gerrard - 9 goals in 24 apps

09/10 Benayoun - 5 goals in 22 apps
08/09 Benayoun - 3 goals in 24 apps

So Torres has played MORE GAMES this season, Gerrard about the same but scored three less goals, Benayoun has played a couple of games less but has scored more goals and Kuyt has played the same number and scored more goals - although the way many criticise him you'd think he hadn't scored this season, laid on a goal or anything. It isn't all about goals, what about defenders :-

09/10 Johnson - 17 apps
08/09 Arbeloa - 21 apps

09/10 Reina - 28 apps
08/09 Reina - 28 apps

09/10 Carragher - 27 apps
08/09 Carragher - 28 apps

09/10 Skrtel - 19 apps
08/09 Skrtel - 15 apps

09/10 Mascherano - 25 apps
08/09 Mascherano - 18 apps

09/10 Agger - 15 apps
08/09 Agger - 10 apps

I haven't included Aurelio although it is 18-14 in favour of 09/10 as Insua seems 1st choice these days, probably Rafa sees little difference in ability/performance and Insua has gotten over his early season error strewn performances

While some may say not to mention Alonso (any more), I think he is the key difference and a big mistake selling him. Maybe none of us could have realised it at the time, but the £10m difference/gain from selling Alonso and buying Aquilani has had a much more significant (negative) impact on the team. You make your own luck, the problem isn't so much luck as lack of adventure and killing off games. How many games have we lost or drawn having scored first?!? Is it 'bad luck' that we didn't score two goals in a cup game until the 12th attempt?!?!? (especially given Debrecen twice, Leeds and Reading twice were among the 11 games so not exactly European giants)

First of all, I would say there's nothing 'wrong' with over-achieving. Its a GOOD thing!

Owzat, Do you know what a "normal" distribution of 1-goal,2-goal etc wins is for a top team??

My impression is that we were overloaded with 'unlucky' draws where we battered the opposition, rather than 'lucky' 1-goal wins (eg. stokeH when gerrard had goal disallowed, stokeA where he hit the post in the last seconds?), but I'm totally willing to be corrected

As a comparison for scrappy wins, the champions got their 9x 1-0 wins remember. I believe hardly  any champion team steam rolls their way to the title with highly convincing authority - its those narrow, nervous (frankly lucky) wins that often make the difference.

I would have said

[stmichael]

It's an excellent post John C.

To answer your question I think we did overachieve last season. Infact some of the football in the second half of the season was as good as I'd seen us play in years and led to many thinking we would go on to win no 19 this season. However every player was playing well. Gerrard and Torres were sensational around Spring time. Benayoun was playing probably the best football of his career. Kuyt was playing above himself and Riera and the likes were also doing a job. We had a wretched run in January which essentially cost us the League in the end (which I still maintain had nothing to do with Rafa's "rant" as the media would have you believe).

Unfortunately some Liverpool fans need to realise that they've been spoiled over the years. We don't have some kind of divine right to win trophies just because we are Liverpool Football Club. Unfortunately with these two clowns at the helm people need to realise that we just can't compete so the achievement of going so close last season was a remarkable one, considering how much was going on behind the scenes. Having seen the injury crisis and appalling luck we've had this season at times, it's remarkable that we're still challenging for 4th imo.

From here 4th is a must imo and I still think we have a good chance of achieving it as all our big hitters are coming back (touchwood). Yes there are still deficiencies in the squad (the flanks are still a major concern) but we've still got several players that any other team in the World would kill to have in their side.

At the end of the day it all comes down to results though. We still played poorly last season at times but nobody really complained because we were still getting results. This season, because we have struggled for long spells, every weakness becomes magnified and exploited. For me United are as poor as they've ever been this season and Ferguson has made some appalling blunders in the transfer market recently but nobody's going to question him after he's just added another trophy at the weekend.

[JC_81]

For me United are as poor as they've ever been this season and Ferguson has made some appalling blunders in the transfer market recently but nobody's going to question him after he's just added another trophy at the weekend.

Good point.

It comes down to the media here.  British managers get a much easier time than the foreign managers in general.  Fair enough Ferguson has proven himself over the years but he shouldn't be beyond criticism.  Valencia has been average and Owen hasn't featured.  The supposed replacements for Ronaldo and Tevez... it's a joke.  But he has the remains of a team that is used to going the distance and despite having a lot less flair than last season they have ground out results.

If Benitez or Wenger had signed those two as replacements for two massive players they'd have been hung out to dry by the media.  Ferguson won't get away with as poor a transfer window this summer and expect to be winning trophies next season.

[Sir Roger]

For me United are as poor as they've ever been this season and Ferguson has made some appalling blunders in the transfer market recently but nobody's going to question him after he's just added another trophy at the weekend.

Good point.

It comes down to the media here.  British managers get a much easier time than the foreign managers in general.  Fair enough Ferguson has proven himself over the years but he shouldn't be beyond criticism.  Valencia has been average and Owen hasn't featured.  The supposed replacements for Ronaldo and Tevez... it's a joke.  But he has the remains of a team that is used to going the distance and despite having a lot less flair than last season they have ground out results.

If Benitez or Wenger had signed those two as replacements for two massive players they'd have been hung out to dry by the media.  Ferguson won't get away with as poor a transfer window this summer and expect to be winning trophies next season.

Well said
This has been my point in my "Man for Man" thread. They are not miles ahead of other teams. They just get away with things other teams wouldnt. Look at Vidic in the final. Fu*king blatant dirty yard dog with previous. Gets away with it.
Ferguson is still terrorising shi'thouse journos. Still!!
If ever a team was made in its managers image it is them. Fu*king nasty, sly, horrible, cheating tw@ts who have to resort to the dark arts to win.
Jealous? Me?

[JC_81]

Ferguson is still terrorising shi'thouse journos. Still!!

This is true.  A lot of journalists do fear him and don't want to upset him.  Contrast Benitez, he just puts up with too much - could you see Ferguson going to Romania and getting questions as inappropriate as Benitez got the other week - feckers asked him about his weight gain!  Could you see them asking Ferguson about his alcohol intake?  Didn't think so.  Fair enough that was Romania and they probably ask that sort of thing to their own managers, but over here the likes of Benitez and Wenger still have to put up with a lot, while talentless blobs like Allardyce and 'Arry get praise to high heaven.

Anyway, that has little to do with the thread, but had to be said!

[Kharhaz]

So what is a good season from here?  Fourth place is minimum requirement.

Rather than raise a new topic I will just pick up from this quote.

I was going to raise a topic on should it go back to the format of league winners only in the European Cup.

And my opinion would be yes. Rafas main goal each season is to finish in the top 4, and aside from his first season he has achieved that. That to me seems to be his cushion. As long as we qualify alls good. We need to take that cushion away. Financially the Champions League is a must, and that in itself keeps managers safe. Take Arsenal for instance. If it was league or nothing, would Arsene Wenger continue to save money and put his faith in the kids? no, of course not. There would be more at stake.

I can tell you what has gone wrong this season. Rafa signing a 5 year contract all but guaranteeing his future, and the fact that a top 4 finish will smooth over a poor season. I said it earlier in the season, if we finish 4th, that will be our cup final.

[DrPepe]

Ferguson is still terrorising shi'thouse journos. Still!!

This is true.  A lot of journalists do fear him and don't want to upset him.  Contrast Benitez, he just puts up with too much - could you see Ferguson going to Romania and getting questions as inappropriate as Benitez got the other week - feckers asked him about his weight gain!  Could you see them asking Ferguson about his alcohol intake?  Didn't think so.  Fair enough that was Romania and they probably ask that sort of thing to their own managers, but over here the likes of Benitez and Wenger still have to put up with a lot, while talentless blobs like Allardyce and 'Arry get praise to high heaven.

Anyway, that has little to do with the thread, but had to be said!

just to clarify some of the reasons for the hostility towards rafa in romania - the lfc official site reported that the game would be in Budapest, rather than Bucharest ...    and that understandably (wrong country, wrong city) got the locals a little riled