by Owzat » Thu Mar 25, 2010 8:08 am
Moving on.................................
THE TORTOISE RACE FOR FOURTH
4. Tottenham P30 PTS 55 (GD +26)
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5. Man City P30 PTS 53 (GD +16)
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6. Liverpool P31 PTS 51 (GD +18)
7. A Villa P30 PTS 51 (GD +17)
Tottenham look in a strong position, but they still have to play all of the other four teams in the top five. They may well win three of their five home games, but they look to have the toughest run-in
RUN-INS
Tottenham (home 57, away 19, total 76, average 9.5)
Home : Chelsea (2nd), Arsenal (3rd), Bolton (14th) , Burnley (18th), Portsmouth (20th)
Away : Man Utd (1st), Man City (5th), Sunderland (13th)
Man City (home 37, away 38, total 75, average 9.5)
Home : Man Utd (1st), Tottenham (4th), A Villa (7th), Birmingham (9th), Wigan, (16th)
Away : Arsenal (3rd), West Ham (17th), Burnley (18th)
Liverpool (home 42, away 46, total 88, average 12.5)
Home : Chelsea (2nd), Fulham (10th), Sunderland (13th), West Ham (17th)
Away : Birmingham (9th), Burnley (18th), Hull (19th)
Aston Villa (home 28, away 60, total 88, average 11.0)
Home : Everton (8th), Birmingham (9th), Blackburn (11th)
Away : Chelsea (2nd), Man City (5th), Bolton (14th), Hull (19th), Portsmouth (20th)
In brackets are the league positions against the opponents, against the team fighting for fourth is the home/away and total of those positions as a rough guide to the difficulty - the higher the numbers, the theoretically easier the run-in. I could throw in the other side of Stanley Park, but seven points to make up is a lot with a modest GD to boot. As Citeh still have to play both spudz and villa then points will be scored by one of the teams involved in each game making it not a lot easier, and with only one game against the sides involved above them
So Liverpool have the easier run-in on paper, but have played a game more than the rest. villa have the next "easiest" run-in on paper, but five away games and some tough home games might make point scoring less easy. spudz have four difficult games, their last win over Arsenal was that 5-1 but that was in the cup. Last spudz win home or away in the Premiership was in 99/00 when they won 2-1 at WHL, IVERSEN and SHERWOOD scoring with only a VIEIRA goal for Arsenal. While Liverpool haven't played that well this season, consider we are still in that fight so whatever you call our form this season, it's still good enough to be in with a shot of fourth in sight of those supposedly having a better season - what does that say...............................?
To put the 'averages' into context, if you were 7th which is as low as any side in the comparison, and you had to play every other side in the table, the average would be 10.5. If you were 4th it would be nearer 11, but the point is that if you wanted to know if the run-in for each side is easier than average or harder, that is the kind of figure that represents normal/average. We've to play sides on average two places below that, spudz and citeh one place above with some tough sides to play.
I wouldn't take anyone else's run-in, not sure even for the extra game. That's not to say we won't botch it up anyway, I've maintained for a while now that we need to win 6-7 games and with Chelsea home and Brum away I'm thinking that will be a little more demanding than it should. Last season our results in the corresponding fixtures were P5 W3 D2 L0 PTS 11 with Brum and Burnley not yet promoted.
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