Liverpool FC Forum

[Madmax]

Against weaker clubs play like we did at stamford bridge..   gung ho

[Owzat]

"The whole is greater than the sum of its parts" - basically no one draw was more or most costly, they collectively cost us. I don't even subscribe to theories that the timing might make one more costly than another as it is 22 points dropped over 35 games and we've not won more than five in a row all season anyhow. As I said elsewhere, we've drawn more games this season and last than the champions have in the past FOUR seasons. We're basically drawing twice as often as the champions usually do and thats too many.

Interestingly enough, in the old two points for a win system we'd be level

Man Utd : P34 W25 D5 L4 PTS 80 (55 points if two for a win)
Liverpool : P35 W22 D11 L2 PTS 77 (55 points if two for a win)

Obviously they'd still have a game in hand, but it shows the costliness of draws these days under a three points for a win system.

[Judge]

"The whole is greater than the sum of its parts" - basically no one draw was more or most costly, they collectively cost us. I don't even subscribe to theories that the timing might make one more costly than another as it is 22 points dropped over 35 games and we've not won more than five in a row all season anyhow. As I said elsewhere, we've drawn more games this season and last than the champions have in the past FOUR seasons. We're basically drawing twice as often as the champions usually do and thats too many.

Interestingly enough, in the old two points for a win system we'd be level

Man Utd : P34 W25 D5 L4 PTS 80 (55 points if two for a win)
Liverpool : P35 W22 D11 L2 PTS 77 (55 points if two for a win)

Obviously they'd still have a game in hand, but it shows the costliness of draws these days under a three points for a win system.

see i told yer bob 

[JC_81]

Obviously the draws are important.

However nobody is mentioning the 3 points thrown away at Spurs in the last 20 mins and the 3 points gifted to Boro after Xabi's og when we looked like we'd given up on the league.

On balance I'd say that Boro game was more significant than a lot of the draws.  The truth is though that it's several results, not just one, that has us in the position we're in.  No point looking back now though imo.

[Judge]

what about that goal gerrard scored against stoke that was ruled out??

[Number 9]

Obviously the draws are important.

However nobody is mentioning the 3 points thrown away at Spurs in the last 20 mins and the 3 points gifted to Boro after Xabi's og when we looked like we'd given up on the league.

On balance I'd say that Boro game was more significant than a lot of the draws.  The truth is though that it's several results, not just one, that has us in the position we're in.  No point looking back now though imo.

I mentioned them both Dougie Howser!!

Do I need an appointment for ya to read my shi'te??

[bigmick]

In fairness, as well as the "costliness" of the draws and the indisputeable fact that we've had a couple of injuries (most notably to Torres), we have dragged ourselves out of the mire in the dying seconds of matches more than i can remember any team doing. We were behind at Home to Middlesboro after 90 minutes, behind Away to Pompey with 3 minutes to go and won both for example, so while it could be a lot better it could equally be a whole lot worse.

I actually think returning to one of my favourite subjects which is of course rotation and selectorial silliness. Most will remember Martin Skyrtel at right back against Moddlesboro away in order to counter Stuart Downing as being a bit of a howler. I always maintained also that the Pompey selection Away was of a similar variety, Aurelio in central midfield and abject confusion only rescued by two goals in the last three minutes. It's only fair to also mention that I also maintained that the Newcastle selection Away was ridiculous (even though we won 5-1 ) as it was the second occasion which in the immediate aftermath of Keane scoring two goals in a match he was dropped (that'll teach him).

Ultimately though, our fault in the Home games in particular was in set up and ambition. Rafa was still talking mid season THIS season of how at valencia he drew loads of matches but still went on to win the title. there was an undercurrent of "don't worry, a draw's better than a defeat" in his interviews. We settled for a point at Wigan by taking off Gerrard and Torres, we settled for a point at Arsenal when they were there for the taking, and we played at Home with two holders, lets see how the first hour goes and we'll take it from there. It cost us dearly, but as I've said it could have been a lot worse.

We still may win it of course, and in many ways if we don't having beaten the two other best teams in the competition both Home and Away it will be an absolute travesty of justice. I've absolutely no doubts whatsoever that we are now painfully aware that we shouldn't be patting ourselves on the back after draws, nor should we be setting up with the primary target of not getting beat. I even think we are coming around to the idea that Peter Crouch on the left wing, Steven Gerrard on the left wing, Bolo Zenden in central midfield at the Emirates, Martin Skyrtel at right back, Fabio Aurelio in central midfield and the like are decisions which can have grave consequences in the end. It's taken a while (God knows it's taken a while) but eventually we've got it I'm sure of it.

As a direct result of that, I've no doubt we will continue next season as we currently are, playing inspiring football and rolling teams over. It might though be unrealistic to expect us to take 14 points off of the big four again, nor to pull quite so many games out of the jaws of defeat as we have this. It's going to be an interesting one going forward, but my slightly "anti" post must be tempered with a reiteration of an earlier statement which was that I think the team are currently playing as well as they have for 20 years, and the manager deserves huge credit for that.

[JoeTerp]

I'll think your doing a little bit of revisionist history there BigMick. It wasn't like Skrtel was picked to play rightback on a hunch. Arbeloa was not available, neither was Darby or Degen. Carra allegedly refused to play right back and in that Pompey match when there was also a whole mess of people not available, Skrtel played fairly well on the right side of a back three.  In hindsight, we probably should have played Mascherano at right back like we did the next week against Sunderland.  Further, a lot of the resting against Pompey was not delayed gazelle resting, it was actual resting as a lot players looked very tired at the end of the extra time loss to Everton just days before, and I think we were unlucky to even be in a position to have to come back from in the first place.

and as far as playing two holding players too often, we have not dropped a single point in the league when Mascherano, Alonso, Gerrard, and Torres have all started

[SupitsJonF]

(1) Aston Villa 0 - 0 LFC (Aug. 31st)    [BM=2nd, AM=2nd]
(2) LFC 0 - 0 Stoke (Sept. 20)    [BM=2nd, AM=3rd]
(3) LFC 0 - 0 Fulham (Nov. 22)    [BM=2nd, AM=2nd]
(4) LFC 0 - 0 West Ham (Dec. 1)    [BM=2nd, AM=1st]
(5) LFC 2 - 2 Hull City (Dec. 13)    [BM=1st, AM=1st]
(6) Arsenal 1 - 1 LFC (Dec. 21)    [BM=1st, AM=1st]
(7) Stoke 0 - 0 LFC (Jan. 10)    [BM=1st, AM=1st]
(8) LFC 1 - 1 Everton (Jan. 19)    [BM=2nd, AM=2nd]
(9) Wigan 1 - 1 LFC (Jan. 28)    [BM=2nd, AM=3rd]
(10) LFC 1 - 1 Man City (Feb. 22)    [BM=2nd, AM=2nd]
(11) LFC 4 - 4 Arsenal (April 21)    [BM=2nd, AM=2nd]

My opinion, these were the worst.

[JC_81]

Obviously the draws are important.

However nobody is mentioning the 3 points thrown away at Spurs in the last 20 mins and the 3 points gifted to Boro after Xabi's og when we looked like we'd given up on the league.

On balance I'd say that Boro game was more significant than a lot of the draws.  The truth is though that it's several results, not just one, that has us in the position we're in.  No point looking back now though imo.

I mentioned them both Dougie Howser!!

Do I need an appointment for ya to read my shi'te??

So you did

It was a long post though, I didn't make it to the end

[Owzat]

Nice little analysis of BMs and AMs, however it doesn't factor in that early season our rival for top spot was Chelsea and now it is Man Utd. Perhaps a better way of reflecting it was how many points we were ahead of/behind those two after each round of matches.

The most disappointing draws were the home draws against Stoke and Hull, we should be beating those teams (newly promoted) Then probably Stoke away, Fulham at home and West Ham away. But two points dropped is two points dropped, doesn't matter how or when since they are dropped and whether they mean we dropped from 1st to 2nd at one point of the season is immaterial as they are points in a whole season and only at the end of the season do you know where the TOTAL leaves you.

Perhaps best explained thus - if you pick up 33 points out of 57 at the start of the season and 47 out of 57 at the end of the season, the other way around will make no difference to your end points tally except psychologically you will feel your run-in cost you instead of your start. If you pick up two more points in the first half of the season and two less in the second half, that still won't make a difference to your end points tally. The only possible impact the timing of a draw can have is in "momentum", but every draw is lost momentum and a group of draws such as those at the end of November and beginning of December, or the three in a row in January, are groups and not individual draws.

22/11/08 D0-0 vs Fulham (h)
01/12/08 D0-0 vs West Ham (h)
06/12/08 W3-1 vs Blackburn (a)
13/12/08 D2-2 vs Hull (H)
21/12/08 D1-1 vs Arsenal (a)

P5 W1 D4 L0 F6 A4 PTS 7 (out of 15)

10/01/09 D0-0 vs Stoke City (a)
19/01/09 D1-1 vs Everton (h)
28/01/09 D1-1 vs Wigan Athletic (a)

P3 W0 D3 L0 F2 A2 PTS 3 (out of 9)

If you like those are the costliest SPELLS (of draws), dropping eight and six points respectively which is half our dropped points for the season (28)

[fivecups]

(1) Aston Villa 0 - 0 LFC (Aug. 31st)    [BM=2nd, AM=2nd]
(2) LFC 0 - 0 Stoke (Sept. 20)    [BM=2nd, AM=3rd]
(3) LFC 0 - 0 Fulham (Nov. 22)    [BM=2nd, AM=2nd]
(4) LFC 0 - 0 West Ham (Dec. 1)    [BM=2nd, AM=1st]
(5) LFC 2 - 2 Hull City (Dec. 13)    [BM=1st, AM=1st]
(6) Arsenal 1 - 1 LFC (Dec. 21)    [BM=1st, AM=1st]
(7) Stoke 0 - 0 LFC (Jan. 10)    [BM=1st, AM=1st]
(8) LFC 1 - 1 Everton (Jan. 19)    [BM=2nd, AM=2nd]
(9) Wigan 1 - 1 LFC (Jan. 28)    [BM=2nd, AM=3rd]
(10) LFC 1 - 1 Man City (Feb. 22)    [BM=2nd, AM=2nd]
(11) LFC 4 - 4 Arsenal (April 21)    [BM=2nd, AM=2nd]

It's exceptionally rare for any team to play well for the whole season. Most teams will have days when they just don't perform or have periods where they slump.

Without thinking too much about the performance the home games against Stoke, Fulham, Hull and West Ham jump out as must wins for any team with designs on the title. However in terms of performance the Fulham and West Ham games were fairly poor - I think Bellamy had the best chance of the match for West Ham - and we didn't deserve more than a point in either. Dull, dull football. Hull was a strange one which we did well to get back into but perhaps ultimately should have won. Man City again was poor and we only deserved a point.

In terms of performing well and not taking the points - Spurs away was the biggest tragedy of the lot but Arsenal away against 10 men was crying out for all out attack whereas we seemed to settle back and accept the draw. Wigan and Everton were two of the most frustrating for me because we had them won with 15 minutes to go - it was needless fouls and sloppiness that cost us and four points went down the drain. Those along with Spurs were the biggest wasted opportunities for me.

Arsenal at home was a freak. Arshavin played the best game he'll ever play in his entire career that day. 4 shots on target the whole game, just bad luck for us. It happens in football.

In terms of timing December was our chance to charge clear and we didn't take it. January was our worst month by far which started the slide that left us 10 points behind United at one stage.

Costliest overall - Everton and Wigan (and I do realise that each draw equates equally with 2 points dropped mathematically)

[LiverpoolMadman]

I think these are the ones that really hurt us .... We lose 18 points total for these matches

(2) LFC 0 - 0 Stoke (Sept. 20)    [BM=2nd, AM=3rd]
(3) LFC 0 - 0 Fulham (Nov. 22)    [BM=2nd, AM=2nd]
(4) LFC 0 - 0 West Ham (Dec. 1)    [BM=2nd, AM=1st]
(5) LFC 2 - 2 Hull City (Dec. 13)    [BM=1st, AM=1st]
(7) Stoke 0 - 0 LFC (Jan. 10)    [BM=1st, AM=1st]
(8) LFC 1 - 1 Everton (Jan. 19)    [BM=2nd, AM=2nd]
(9) Wigan 1 - 1 LFC (Jan. 28)    [BM=2nd, AM=3rd]
(10) LFC 1 - 1 Man City (Feb. 22)    [BM=2nd, AM=2nd]
(11) LFC 4 - 4 Arsenal (April 21)    [BM=2nd, AM=2nd]

[Effes]

Stoke away, Everton at home and then Wigan away.

All 3 results in a row, 2 drawn by conceding late equalisers.

6 points that would have us in the driving seat right now.

[Sabre]

I'll think your doing a little bit of revisionist history there BigMick. It wasn't like Skrtel was picked to play rightback on a hunch. Arbeloa was not available, neither was Darby or Degen. Carra allegedly refused to play right back and in that Pompey match when there was also a whole mess of people not available, Skrtel played fairly well on the right side of a back three.  In hindsight, we probably should have played Mascherano at right back like we did the next week against Sunderland.  Further, a lot of the resting against Pompey was not delayed gazelle resting, it was actual resting as a lot players looked very tired at the end of the extra time loss to Everton just days before, and I think we were unlucky to even be in a position to have to come back from in the first place.

and as far as playing two holding players too often, we have not dropped a single point in the league when Mascherano, Alonso, Gerrard, and Torres have all started

That's how I remember it too. Playing something so strange as Fabio Aurelio as CM had a reason, and the reason was main players weren't available.

With someone like Alonso, Gerrard and Torres missing, sometimes you'll get away with it, sometimes you won't but in the long term you'll pay for it.

And for me it's not interesting to watch what games we drew but to analyse why. And the reason was lack of depth in the squad when the inevitable absences come. There will always exist a Wise, or a Barton. There will always exist international games. There will always be Sunday-Wednesday-Sunday-Wednesday chained games. That forces you, Ferguson, and anyone facing many competitions to rotate. As not doing it is nonsense.

It's so nonsense that actually you can't try it and see what happens: injuries will make unavailable your players with a muscular injury first.

And to rotate properly, you need depth quality. And for depth quality you need money, or time and pacience (also known as 5 year plans).

So main factor for draws are two, lack of deep quality(1), and that old phenomenom in football that is known as "a bad day in the office", which is the main reason why no team in the world in any time have won every game of the competition.


(1) This was flagrant when Keane left and nobody came.