Liverpool FC Forum

[Owzat]

I've just been looking at how we've done the league (or cup) game AFTER a Champions League game and before, with a view to how it has affected our league form and if we tend to lose after a Champions League game

Results After A Champions League Game Under Rafa

Played 40
Won 15
Drawn 9
Lost 16
For 48
Against 39
Clean Sheets 15

I've excluded the games after the Champions League finals as these weren't played until the following season. I also extracted the multiple consecutive Champions League results where we had to play all qualifying rounds in order to defend our title.

Results Before A Champions League Game Under Rafa

Played 40
Won 20
Drawn 11
Lost 9
For 60
Against 33
Clean Sheets 17

What is perhaps more interesting is how often we play at home before and after a Champions League game as ultimately that will help with results.

AFTER

Home P19 W11 D5 L3
Away P21 W4 D4 L13

BEFORE

Home P20 W15 D4 L1
Away P20 W5 D7 L8

So we've lost a lot of away games after a Champions League fixture and not so many at home. In fact 21 of the 25 defeats incurred before or after a Champions League fixture were away, 25 defeats in 80 games is 31.25% compared to Rafa's overall 46 defeats in 187 games which is 24.60%. We are more likely to win at home and lose away anyway, although the number of away defeats after a Champions League game is worrying. The teams we lost away to after a Champions League game were :-

L0-1 Bolton
L1-2 Man Utd
L0-1 Chelsea
L0-1 Everton
L2-3 Chelsea (League Cup Final*)
L0-1 Man City
L1-3 Arsenal
-------------
L0-2 Fulham
L1-2 Arsenal
-------------
L0-1 Chelsea
L0-2 Bolton
L0-2 Man Utd
L1-2 Portsmouth

*technically the final is on neutral ground, but it is away from Anfield and it's not worth extracting one-offs on neutral ground.

So after a Champions League match we've lost away at Man Utd twice, Chelsea two/three times, Arsenal twice and Bolton twice. Either we have really bad luck or the fixtures are fiddled to give us nasty away games in weeks known to have Champions League fixtures. Even Portsmouth and Everton are demanding away trips, Fulham and Man City not always the easiest either.

The divides indicate different seasons, no wonder we lost so many away in Rafa's first season (11 league games) when these were so often tough games played after a Champions League match. Our three toughest away matches on paper are Chelsea, Arsenal and Man Utd (Rafa's not won in the league away to any of them) and we get them ALL after a Champions League game in Rafa's first season.

[bigmick]

FWIW I don't subscribe to the theory that Rafa is bleating without foundation when he talks about fixture lists and the like, I think he has something of a point Owzat and your (as usual) excellent statistical analysis would appear to back that up. I think Mourinho has very quickly caught on that in order to be given a fair deal in comparison to both Arsenal and Man Utd, he has had to catch up on years of drip-drip winging from Ferguson and Wenger, purely designed to ensure they get the best of the situation. Clearly, somebody has to play at home and somebody away and it seems that those who make the most noise get their own way.

The one area where the stats in terms of results would have been slightly distorted is in the fact that Rafa has often rotated the league team to ensure the strongest team was fielded in the CL. This has particularly been the case in campaigns such as last season where the CL was our only realistic chance of winning something from fairly early on in the season. Similarly, it could be argued (and indeed is being argued) that had we not have been playing Porto this week, we could have fielded a stronger team at Portsmouth on Saturday and perhaps achieved a better outcome.

[Leonmc0708]

Similarly, it could be argued (and indeed is being argued) that had we not have been playing Porto this week, we could have fielded a stronger team at Portsmouth on Saturday and perhaps achieved a better outcome.

I think its not s omuch about the Champions LEagie game as A N Other game this week.

I dont think its about priorities, its about making sure the players are fresh.

That in mind, if we have the two games, Pompey and Porto then it makes sense surely to ensure that the game that carries the most importance, that is the one that we dont have another 32 games to put right, is the one where we field the stronger of the two sides.

Had we played Gerrard and others in the Portsmouth game and then had to rest them, or worse still played jaded players and lost on Tuesday, then there would be both more uproar and less chance of fixing hte situation.

[bigmick]

That in mind, if we have the two games, Pompey and Porto then it makes sense surely to ensure that the game that carries the most importance, that is the one that we dont have another 32 games to put right, is the one where we field the stronger of the two sides.

I know what you're saying about the 32 games to put right Leon but I'm pretty sure I don't agree. We need to finish in the top two of four in the Champions League, and as Owzat has pointed out a couple of wins at Home, along with a point or two on the road should do the trick. I am absolutely convinced we will progress beyond this group stage, even if we were to lose in Porto (which I don't think we will).

As for the league, clearly we will have worse results during the campaign than we had yesterday. We will have to bounce back from defeats never mind draws and like you say, we'll have many games to do it. It's about momentum though for me. I'm not sure we ever recovered from the Sheffield United debacle in the opening game of last season, and while we've picked up a reasonably creditable point at fratton Park it has slightly slowed down our momentum. Torres has three goals already, it would have been lovely to have kept up our 100% Away record, possibly with another goal for the Spaniard and stretch the lead a little bit. Fortunately (and lets face it there was much of that) we didn't lose but it we didn't cover ourselves in glory either.

[Bad Bob]

Similarly, it could be argued (and indeed is being argued) that had we not have been playing Porto this week, we could have fielded a stronger team at Portsmouth on Saturday and perhaps achieved a better outcome.

See, mate, I don't think that was it at all.  So far this season, Rafa has demonstrated that the league takes priority--just look at the weaker teams he fielded in 'must win' games v. Toulouse.  Plus, we know Rafa has a history of resting the likes of Gerrard in the first match of the group stage, even against our toughest opponents (PSV away last year), so I don't think he was saving the big guns for Porto.

The team Rafa selected yesterday, for me, had everything to do with the international qualifiers, the travel associated with it and the inability to train and prepare as a squad, since the players arrived back at Melwood on Thursday only to turn around and head for Portsmouth the next day.  Had there been no international double-headers last week I would bet a year's salary that Torres and Gerrard would have started. 

I'm sorry but there's been far too many people acting like the internationals never happened, that playing twice in a week while healing from a broken bone or that traveling to the likes of Albania and back is no big deal.  Reality check, folks--even fit, young athletes get tired when the play 3 must-win games in the space of 7 days, some on the other side of the bloody continent.

Gotta say, there's also that familiar and increasingly tedious notion of 'tinkerman Rafa' doing the rounds again, as if he just throws all the names in a hat before kick off and hope things work out.  The man is meticulous--every interview, biography and indication from colleagues confirms this.  He takes preparation very seriously--both tactics and fitness.  Hell, we've read recently that his office walls are lined with biometric analyses of player fitness as it correlates to performance and we know he burns the midnight oil watching videotape of opponents or pouring over scouting reports.  Is it so hard to believe that he has a very carefully thought out strategy with his team selection and that he has the tools at his capacity to evaluate who is ready to play away at Portsmouth following a grueling international break?  Nah, it's probably better to suppose he just rotates on a whim, just to be contrary, when everyone from Alan Hansen to the man on the street knows with certainty that playing our best 11 would have seen us turn Portsmouth over 11-0 or something. 

[Wilhelmsson]

and the inability to train and prepare as a squad, since the players arrived back at Melwood on Thursday only to turn around and head for Portsmouth the next day.

I’d like to say a few things:

1) Most of the Liverpool players have been at Liverpool long enough to know what Rafa expects on the field and I am sure all the players know their individual and collective roles within the team. Therefore realistically, the players shouldn’t be fazed in the slightest by missing a few days club training.

I'm sorry but there's been far too many people acting like the internationals never happened, that playing twice in a week while healing from a broken bone or that traveling to the likes of Albania and back is no big deal.  Reality check, folks--even fit, young athletes get tired when the play 3 must-win games in the space of 7 days, some on the other side of the bloody continent.

2) That’s not true though is it? No one has indicated that NT games haven’t occurred.

Fatigue will no doubt play a role, but why is that players such as Ronaldo, Tevez, Fabregas and Terry are able to play one or two Internationals in quick succession and then play for the retrospective clubs shortly afterwards?

When Babel, Torres and Gerrard came on yesterday afternoon, they looked fine, none of them showed any signs of fatigue in their performances. Portsmouth is not the ideal fixture to be resting key players, not if this season is a serious challenge on the Premiership.

[Bad Bob]

and the inability to train and prepare as a squad, since the players arrived back at Melwood on Thursday only to turn around and head for Portsmouth the next day.

I’d like to say a few things:

1) Most of the Liverpool players have been at Liverpool long enough to know what Rafa expects on the field and I am sure all the players know their individual and collective roles within the team. Therefore realistically, the players shouldn’t be fazed in the slightest by missing a few days club training.

I'm sorry but there's been far too many people acting like the internationals never happened, that playing twice in a week while healing from a broken bone or that traveling to the likes of Albania and back is no big deal.  Reality check, folks--even fit, young athletes get tired when the play 3 must-win games in the space of 7 days, some on the other side of the bloody continent.

2) That’s not true though is it? No one has indicated that NT games haven’t occurred.

Fatigue will no doubt play a role, but why is that players such as Ronaldo, Tevez, Fabregas and Terry are able to play one or two Internationals in quick succession and then play for the retrospective clubs shortly afterwards?

When Babel, Torres and Gerrard came on yesterday afternoon, they looked fine, none of them showed any signs of fatigue in their performances. Portsmouth is not the ideal fixture to be resting key players, not if this season is a serious challenge on the Premiership.

Some interesting points there, mate.  My response:

1) Training is about preparing for the opposition as much it is about fitness and general team tactics.  Rafa likes the team to know the oppo inside and out and they didn't have that prep time this week

2) To hear some people comment about "young, fit athletes" and "so what's a little travel" on hear, you'd forgive me for thinking people were writing the international break off as almost a two week long jolly

3) Yes, other top clubs had internationals play (as did we) but were any of those lads coming off a broken foot like Gerrard?  And are we now considering Babel as nailed on to start based on one good performance against Derby and a couple of decent cameos?  He's hardly a Fabregas yet, is he?  As for Torres, I've already said that I agree that he should have been risked if he had little more than a niggle.  But I have no way of knowing what shape he was in coming back from internationals and I don't think a half hour subs appearance is incontrovertible proof that he was fully fit and ready to go (another) 90 minutes.

[LFC #1]

That in mind, if we have the two games, Pompey and Porto then it makes sense surely to ensure that the game that carries the most importance, that is the one that we dont have another 32 games to put right, is the one where we field the stronger of the two sides.

I know what you're saying about the 32 games to put right Leon but I'm pretty sure I don't agree. We need to finish in the top two of four in the Champions League, and as Owzat has pointed out a couple of wins at Home, along with a point or two on the road should do the trick. I am absolutely convinced we will progress beyond this group stage, even if we were to lose in Porto (which I don't think we will).

As for the league, clearly we will have worse results during the campaign than we had yesterday. We will have to bounce back from defeats never mind draws and like you say, we'll have many games to do it. It's about momentum though for me. I'm not sure we ever recovered from the Sheffield United debacle in the opening game of last season, and while we've picked up a reasonably creditable point at fratton Park it has slightly slowed down our momentum. Torres has three goals already, it would have been lovely to have kept up our 100% Away record, possibly with another goal for the Spaniard and stretch the lead a little bit. Fortunately (and lets face it there was much of that) we didn't lose but it we didn't cover ourselves in glory either.

As I said in the other thread bigmick, a loss on Tuesday would put unnecessary pressure on, especially if we were then to drop points against Marseille. The first two games set the group up, we don't want to go into the last 1 or 2 games NEEDING results, then we will really have to rotate.

Also, the performance aside, was it really that bad a result yesterday? Fratton Park has hardly been a happy hunting ground for us and Man U have also dropped points there already this season. Portsmouth is one of the tougher aways in the league IMO and 0-0 was not a poor result.

[Wilhelmsson]

Some interesting points there, mate.  My response:

1) Training is about preparing for the opposition as much it is about fitness and general team tactics.  Rafa likes the team to know the oppo inside and out and they didn't have that prep time this week

2) To hear some people comment about "young, fit athletes" and "so what's a little travel" on hear, you'd forgive me for thinking people were writing the international break off as almost a two week long jolly

3) Yes, other top clubs had internationals play (as did we) but were any of those lads coming off a broken foot like Gerrard?  And are we now considering Babel as nailed on to start based on one good performance against Derby and a couple of decent cameos?  He's hardly a Fabregas yet, is he?  As for Torres, I've already said that I agree that he should have been risked if he had little more than a niggle.  But I have no way of knowing what shape he was in coming back from internationals and I don't think a half hour subs appearance is incontrovertible proof that he was fully fit and ready to go (another) 90 minutes.

You’re correct, training is indeed about focusing on the opposition to a certain extent, along with the usual fitness and team formation building. Though, I’m not entirely sure why much of the training would be focused on the opposition?

Surely the manager would have a brief team discussion before or after training about the strengths and weaknesses of the opposition? I always presumed training was about focusing mainly on the strengths of the team, not the opposition (I could of course be wrong).

I understand what you’re saying, but there will be times where Liverpool will play three matches over a period of seven, eight or nine days. In certain games such key players can be rested, but I felt the match yesterday was the wrong match in which to rest such key personnel.

Torres’ runs, Gerrard’s all round game and Babel’s ability to run/play the ball through the tightest of margins would have proved an essential attacking tool against a rigid Portsmouth defence at a fortress of Fratton Park.

Gerrard’s foot looked fit and well when he running around against Israel and Russia, he was very influential in both matches. Therefore if he is well enough to play for England, then he should be well enough to play for his club.

Babel has been playing well and has added another dimension to our attack, which is proving to be useful. I’m not saying Babel should be a nailed on first team starter, but he has definitely been essential in our attacking threat so far this season.

Torres looked fine when he came on, if a player is suffering from a knock, fatigue or personal problems, fans can usually tell within an instant that something is not entirely right.

I’m not sure why Rafa chose to rest all three, you could be correct and they were tired, but I am inclined to agree with people who say Rafa has his mind on the match with Porto.

[Bad Bob]

Some interesting points there, mate.  My response:

1) Training is about preparing for the opposition as much it is about fitness and general team tactics.  Rafa likes the team to know the oppo inside and out and they didn't have that prep time this week

2) To hear some people comment about "young, fit athletes" and "so what's a little travel" on hear, you'd forgive me for thinking people were writing the international break off as almost a two week long jolly

3) Yes, other top clubs had internationals play (as did we) but were any of those lads coming off a broken foot like Gerrard?  And are we now considering Babel as nailed on to start based on one good performance against Derby and a couple of decent cameos?  He's hardly a Fabregas yet, is he?  As for Torres, I've already said that I agree that he should have been risked if he had little more than a niggle.  But I have no way of knowing what shape he was in coming back from internationals and I don't think a half hour subs appearance is incontrovertible proof that he was fully fit and ready to go (another) 90 minutes.

You’re correct, training is indeed about focusing on the opposition to a certain extent, along with the usual fitness and team formation building. Though, I’m not entirely sure why much of the training would be focused on the opposition?

Surely the manager would have a brief team discussion before or after training about the strengths and weaknesses of the opposition? I always presumed training was about focusing mainly on the strengths of the team, not the opposition (I could of course be wrong).

I understand what you’re saying, but there will be times where Liverpool will play three matches over a period of seven, eight or nine days. In certain games such key players can be rested, but I felt the match yesterday was the wrong match in which to rest such key personnel.

Torres’ runs, Gerrard’s all round game and Babel’s ability to run/play the ball through the tightest of margins would have proved an essential attacking tool against a rigid Portsmouth defence at a fortress of Fratton Park.

Gerrard’s foot looked fit and well when he running around against Israel and Russia, he was very influential in both matches. Therefore if he is well enough to play for England, then he should be well enough to play for his club.

Babel has been playing well and has added another dimension to our attack, which is proving to be useful. I’m not saying Babel should be a nailed on first team starter, but he has definitely been essential in our attacking threat so far this season.

Torres looked fine when he came on, if a player is suffering from a knock, fatigue or personal problems, fans can usually tell within an instant that something is not entirely right.

I’m not sure why Rafa chose to rest all three, you could be correct and they were tired, but I am inclined to agree with people who say Rafa has his mind on the match with Porto.

Fair enough and, given that we're deep into the realm of speculation, any number of theories are plausible as to why all 3 were rested (not to mention Kuyt and Riise).  I recognize that I have a bit more faith in the gaffer than some in this regard--I assume that he has very carefully considered reasons for selecting the players he does.  I also recognize that we did look a little toothless in attack yesterday and that that had at least something to do with the personnel on the pitch--which falls on Rafa's shoulders.  Unless we get stories coming out in the papers tomorrow about the fitness of the players in question, we'll all still be clinging to our preferred theories, I suspect.

On the subject of training, though, I do think that a large part of Rafa's approach is to prepare the team for the particular opponents they will be facing.  I'm sure I've read some tidbits on this from the likes of Ballague and other "insiders" who've had a chance to observe Rafa's methods.  Anyone have some hard facts to vindicate me or make me look the numpty on this one?   

[Sabre]

Statistics deliver user info when you analyse a decent amount of matches. And yes in this case you can see playing the Champions has a direct impact on before and after games. It also has more impact in the long run with muscular injuries.

Having deep squads is fundamental for that. In your country, always the same strong teams make it to the champions league, but in mine, teams like Celta, Betis and Real Sociedad made it to the champions league with their normal squads. In every single case those normal squads made a decent CL, going through the first round and everything, but were almost relegated in the league. You can see then better the impact of an extra top competition on a natural squad. Fortunately Liverpool have a strong enough squad right now to face all competitions.