Liverpool FC Forum

[Bad Bob]

As we rapidly descend into the nether regions of silly season--where newspapers contrive to drive us batty with transfer gossip--I sense that quite a few people are becoming rather dejected with the way things are unfolding thus far.  While rival clubs with deep pockets are hovering like vultures and starting to hoover up quality players, we're getting reports suggesting that, financially speaking, we may not have a pot to p!ss in this summer.  People are understandably concerned that our rivals will strengthen significantly while we sift through Europe's bargain bins or are forced to sell a key player or two to raise some transfer cash.

While this thread is not designed to dismiss the very real financial constraints we find the club operating under, I do think there is some genuine cause for optimism when we consider the squad we already have (a squad, it needs reminding, that finished just behind the Mancs, chalked up 84 points over the course of our most successful league campaign in many a year and outscored the rest of the league in the process while still boasting a stingy defensive record). 

So, for the sake of discussion, let's suppose that we take the road less traveled this summer and do nothing in the transfer market: neither selling top players nor bringing in new personnel.  Also, for the sake of discussion, let's set aside the probability that certain other teams will be more competitive next season--in this instance, I'd prefer to look just at our squad and assess what this group of players might be able to achieve if kept together and given the benefit of the experience gained this past season.  (How other teams may or may not fare is not our concern here, except insofar as it matters when it comes time to play them.)

This, I think, leads to the question of whether there's room for improvement with the existing squad (rather than improvement gained through transfers).  I think there is in a couple of ways.  First, there's the improvement that would come if we were to play the more attacking brand of football we enjoyed during this season's run-in from the outset next season.  Sure, in doing so we run the risk of losing the odd game with our more cavalier style but we also stand to turn more of those title-impeding draws into wins.

Second--and here's the point of a new thread--I think we can consider the improvement that would come from getting our best players on the pitch together a lot more.  This isn't a point about rotation, BTW, because, by and large, Rafa toned down the styling this past season to good effect.  Even so, if you look at some of the stats for league games played in this past season, you quickly come to the conclusion that a combination of injuries kept some key players off the pitch for some significant periods of time:

League Matches Missed
Torres.....18
Gerrard.....8
Alonso.....11
Masch.....10
Arbeloa.....9
Skrtel......14 (not counting rotation with Agger during run-in)
Agger.....7 (not counting rotation with Skrtel/Hyypia)
Aurelio.....8 (not counting rotation with Dossena & Insua)

Thankfully we had Carra, Reina and Kuyt fit and available for every game to compensate!

So, when you start to have a look at how these injuries affected the team we could put out for each league match, it becomes apparent that fielding what most would agree is close to our best eleven was tricky.  (Here it gets a little subjective, as everyone's best 11 is slightly different but if we acknowledge that, in a few positions, we're not radically weakened when selecting between two players...it might look something like this):

Our Best Elevenish

                          Reina

Arbeloa    Carragher  Agger/Skrtel   Aurelio/Insua

              Alonso     Mascherano

Kuyt                 Gerrard              Riera/Benayoun

                            Torres

Can you believe that some iteration of this Best 11 (with either Agger or Skrtel partnering Carra at CB and so on...) only managed to play together FOUR TIMES all season?!?  In a way, that's not surprising--as both Keane and Dossena saw plenty of action early in the season.  Still, even after Keane was sold and Dossena proven to be pants, we still fielded a variation of the above only 3 times out of 16 games in the league.

Of course, when working with a best 11 (even a best 11ish) there's always more likelihood that someone will be missing due to injury or suspension (while there's every likelihood that the absence of an individual or two can be compensated for in the short term).  So, maybe a better measure is to look at our absolutely key players and see how often they played together in the league.  If we define our key players, broadly, as:

Reina
Arbeloa (only reliable specialist RB)
Carragher
Alonso
Mascherano
Kuyt (Rafa obviously considers him to be key)
Gerrard
Torres

Amazingly, we find that these 8 players only played 3 games together all season!

If we (as Tomkins does in his latest piece) narrow our definition of key players to:

Reina
Carragher
Alonso
Mascherano
Gerrard
Torres

We find that these 6 players only managed 4 games together all season!  If we take away the constants that are Reina and Carra (who played every game) that means that Alonso, Masch, Gerrard and Torres only started 4 league games together all season!!!  Incredible!

Finally, we could focus on the much touted Gerrard-Torres attacking axis and we would find that these two key players only started 14 of 38 league games all season.  A big improvement on 4 games together but still a long way short of optimal.

What conclusions can we draw from this?  Well, the obvious one is that we might have done even better this season if we had found a way to get more of our key players on the pitch together at the same time.  Injuries, of course, happen to all teams and we'll be hit with them again next season too.  But, just a little bit more luck on that front might see us getting close to our strongest team on the pitch more often next season, which might make all the difference between a draw and a victory. 

So, to drag a rather long-winded opening post toward a conclusion, is it possible to suggest that, with a little luck in the injury department, we could do nothing in the transfer market and still expect to field a stronger team more frequently next season than we did during this one?  Food for thought, perhaps.




-----
In case anyone's interested, I've also worked up a few numbers that gesture at the cost of particular player absences.  I'm hesitant to draw any firm conclusions from them, but make of these numbers what you will:

Number of Draws/Losses Missed Through Injury etc. (season total: 11 draws/2 losses)

Torres.....4/2
Gerrard.....4/0
Alonso.....4/0
Masch.....4/0
1 of the above.....6/2
2 of the above.....5/0
Carra at CB.....2/0
Skrtel.....5/1
Agger.....8/1
Aurelio....6/2
Benayoun.....6/2
Arbeloa.....2/1
Riera.....2/1
Kuyt....1/0

[Gerrard30391]

Great post Bob, and i think you're right on the "luck with the injuries front".

My argument is, can we rely on that bigger slice of luck. I'm not too sure we can...i don't believe we have to spend big, but spend we must.

[Bad Bob]

Great post Bob, and i think you're right on the "luck with the injuries front".

My argument is, can we rely on that bigger slice of luck. I'm not too sure we can...i don't believe we have to spend big, but spend we must.

I agree, mate, that we run a huge risk if we simply count on having fewer injuries next season.  The flip side, though, is that we've proven this season that we have a very good squad--one capable of going very close to the title, even when our main striker and several other key players missed important periods with injuries.  Given that, I think we'd be shooting ourselves in the foot trying to sell key players in order to finance transfers.  There are several players that don't factor into the key player calculus and they are the ones that should be moved on, IMO.  Babel, Lucas, Dossena and Voronin look the most likely to fetch some money and, if the owners can top those earnings up even slightly, we can perhaps think about getting in someone like Silva, who would help soften the injury blow immeasurably.  Failing that, I still think bringing in the likes of Owen and Tuncay would give us more strength in depth in attack for a modest outlay.  But this thread is not meant to be another discussion of possible transfers so I'll leave it at that...

[Gerrard30391]

Agreed, we don't, and shouldn't, need to sell any of our big/important/key (however you want to put it) players as the squad is there, just a bit bare round the edges. I also agree that selling the likes of Voronin, Dossena and Lucas with a little top up from the owners, can help us get 1 quality player and possibly one of your Tuncay type players. Me, personally, would like to see Babel stay (i know many disagree, but that's a thread all to its self) as i believe he can still give us something, he is still relatively young and failing the Tuncay/Owen type signing, can give us adequate (yes only adequate) cover, and an outlet up top.

I do sometimes believe that teams are better off keeping the team and adding to the back-up's, and i firmly believe we are in that category.

But, I'm sure teams like a bit of retail therapy.

[Scottbot]

Great post mate and i'll try and give it the reply it deserves when i've got a bit more time. Certainly our excellent form to close the season has (unfortunately) taken a bit of a back seat to ownership and financial issues this past week and it's hard to escape the feeling that our rivals are all busy strengthening, whilst we are seemingly standing still. On the face of it, if Gerrard and Torres can stay fit and available for the majority of next season then it's certainly reasonable to expect more improvement so long as the others maintain their level. It's a funny one isn't it because the previous season Gerrard and Torres were fit and firing for the majority of the season and we were never in the running.

[HacksawJimDuggin]

We don't need wholesale changes this summer and I think that's part of the reason we have been very quiet when it comes to actual quotes (not rumours) on the various players on the go.

Rafa and Torres won't have signed new contracts if they knew that there was going to be a turbulent summer ahead. The fact that we have been very quiet does not concern me. It's a long summer after all. Let Real and Man City flex their financial muscles first before we move in. I am convinced we've got deals lined up in the background and before you know it BANG we'll announce a big new signing.

[bigmick]

Top opener Bob, and the injuries make interesting reading. Obviously it's the injuries to Torres which had the most impact, whilst Gerrard missing games as well didn't/doesn't help. I know you said the thread wasn't about rotation, but I will just point out that when you consider both Torres and Gerrard are almost certainly going to miss matches anyway due to injury, penalising yourself by not playing them when they are fit is palpably ridiculous. Given the explosive nature of both players they are always going to pick up little niggles here and there, so when fit they must play. I know somepeople will say "it's not as simple as that" but they are wrong, it is.

Other than that I agree with all of the post. I've long been saying that if we bought nobody we'd have another good season, but whether it would be good enough to bring the title is another matter entirely. As I've said before I'm very much a believer in the "golden opportunity" theory, and I simply cannot believe that circumstances will ever align themselves so favourably towards us as they did this season just gone. Given that and the fact we finished four points behind the Mancs, we are obviously going to improve in order to win it.

Like you I believe that the two main "seeing of the light" points, if adhered to for a whole season should make a bit of a difference. If we go into next season fully aware that avoiding defeat at Home to Burnley is nothing to be particularly proud of it'll help. We certainly showed towards the end of the season that this particular penny had dropped. Equally, if we continue along the road to sensible team selection, avoiding making 75 changes to the team in the first 15 matches, avoiding the baloney of Bramhall Lane, the farce of Fratton Park, the madness at the Madjeski and this seasons ridiculousness at the Riverside it should help enormously.

We need to know from game one that every minute of every match counts. None of this "there's a long way to go yet", "calm down FFS I don't believe this place" and all that sh!t. We have a good team and we just need to go for it all out. I would add though that there are spots in the squad which are painfully weak. Right back and centre half are tow obvious ones, while left midfield and up top need urgent attention too.

[bigmick]

It's a funny one isn't it because the previous season Gerrard and Torres were fit and firing for the majority of the season and we were never in the running.

It's something I've talked about a few times that one Scott. Torres scored thirty odd goals and yet we were out of it after 10 games. Now I wonder why on Earth that is   

[GYBS]

Think your post highlights one thing for me Bob - The need to just add a little bit to the squad as opposed to any major changes - get rid of a few and just add a couple to give us a little extra edge during a tight game to try and unlock a tight defence and a decent striker to come off the bench plus a right back - So add three signings - One a major signing (creative little player ) Back Up Striker (Or see if Pacheco of Nemeth can step up ) and a right back , add thoses and think that gives us a great platform to win the prem next season . Obviously if we can have more games from a fully fit torres and Gerrard it would help - also think a big bonus this season coming could be a fully fit agger - gives us an extra option when he brings the ball out .

[ken_job]

Great post Bob, so much depends on injury in the modern game. And although I completely agree that we were hampered by injury I would also have to say that we werent the only team affected by injuries...its part and parcel. Also the same could happen again next season. Or perhaps it could be worse - who knows>!~?

For this reason alone I hope we do strengthen our squad in one or two key areas -  these being cover for right back (as you pointed out we only have Arbeloa for right back and when carra played out there on occasion it created an imbalance), cover for centre half (a 4th choice CB with prem experience as a straight swap for Hypia) and another striker.

I dont think we necessarily NEED world beaters in any of these positions in order to challenge for the league next season (of course if we can have them then all the better) but we do need to 'strengthen ' in these areas. The premierleague is a squad game these days and man U proved that last season. Its generally accepted that our first XI is better than theirs but that their squad is better than ours.

I would echo some previous thoughts in saying that if we brought in say a Wheater or a Distin at CB and a Tuncay or similar up front plus somebody down the right then we would be strengthening our squad without really impacting on the first XI and without spending much whilst remaining in contention for a serious challenge next season.

Another 'cause for optimism' is the beneficial impact this season will have on the players. We had a great run in the final third of last season, the team looked unbeatable and went out on the pitch expecting to win every game. Confidence levels grew amongst the team and they never gave up on the title. I believe that we'll see a really fresh and hungry squad in august and I expect them to pick up from where they left off. That experience will stand to them!

[JC_81]

Good thread starter.  I agree that the most important thing this summer is keeping together the spine of the team and if we can add a few extra players then even better.

Reina, Carragher, Skrtel/Agger, Mascherano, Alonso, Torres gives us a strong spine with Benayoun, Riera, Arbeloa, Kuyt and Aurelio also showing themselves to be good (but not top class) players this season too.  If we can keep those 12 and add a couple I'd be happy enough.

As far as injuries go though, we'd have to be quite fortunate with them to win the league with our current set of players imo.  You have to plan for injuries.  Chelsea missed Drogba for a lot of the season and United didn't have Ronaldo for the first bit of the season and were without Hargreaves for all of it (I firmly believe that they're a much better team with him than without as he's the only midfielder they have who can actually tackle).  So arguably our rivals could say the same as us - 'a bit more luck with injuries and we'll win it'.  I do accept though that we were probably affected more than our rivals, given that Torres and Gerrard only played 14 league games together.

If we keep the same squad I think we'd go very close again, but I also think two quality signings (and the key is quality) and we'll win it next year for sure.

[Bad Bob]

Some good responses and a few points I wanted to pick up on.

Scott's made an important point when says "if others maintain their level"--i.e. the level they showed during the run-in.  That's a larger 'if' than I implied in my opener, I think.  It would be fantastic if the likes of Kuyt and Benayoun picked up exactly where they left off (Masch and Alonso too, as far as that goes), while Riera and Aurelio show more of the form they were showing in early and mid-season respectively.  Will they though?  It's hard to say with these players because while we (now) what they're capable of in a positive sense, we've also seen what they're capable of in terms of more indifferent form as well.  Getting them to keep the level of quality they've shown this season will be an interesting challenge and it may be that Mick's proven right with his golden alignment theory.

Speaking of Mick, I see he couldn't resist throwing rotation into the mix. His point, though, is sound:  Gerrard and Torres must play when fit.  But, of course they do.  Over this past season they both played when fit, as well as a few times when they clearly weren't!  The same's more or less true of Masch and Alonso and Dirk has become part of the first 11 furniture too (quiet in the back!).  At the back Carragher starts every game and Arbeloa--perhaps more out of necessity--plays every match when fit too.  That leaves the LB, second CB and LM positions as the only ones where rotation still comes into play.  To my mind, that's because no one has completely made each position his own rather than some need on Rafa's part to rotate something.  Judging by big games, I think Rafa trusts Riera, Aurelio and Skrtel the most in each position but Agger, Benayoun and Insua provide much needed competition.  I think, though, that the key to improving next season is to pick a partner for Carra and stick with that player until injury, suspension or a palpable drop in form necessitates a change.  For me, Agger's the best man for the job but it's a big, big season for him.  He got his new contract (he has signed it by now, right?) and now he needs to get his head down and re-find the form he showed a season or two back.  I think he dovetails best with Carra and just needs a run of games to really get his game up to his optimum level.  For that, though, he needs to stay fit.

Finally, I think John's spot on when he points out that top teams need to, in some degree, budget for injuries.  As I eluded to in my opener, we have the quality to challenge but it requires an admittedly unrealistic bit of luck when it comes to injuries (and players hitting their top form, as Scott pointed out).  So, those of you who have disregarded my 'imagine we don't sign anyone' scenario are right to do so: we simply must strengthen.  I strongly feel, though, that we can't afford to do so at the expense of our established spine and so must be very, very shrewd in our dealings this summer in order to beef up the squad in key areas on a bit of a shoestring (if reports are accurate).  I don't envy Rafa that task, that's for certain.

[stmichael]

As has already been said, the main problem we had last season was that Torres was injured for most of it. I think him and Gerrard started something like 12 games together in the league, and for half of those Torres would have been working his way back to fitness – so when you’ve got only two world class attackers they really need to be fit for most of the season. We also had problems in defence in that no four got a sustained run of games. Skrtel lost his form after his bad injury, Aurelio rarely stays fit for more than 5 minutes and Agger has had his injury problems aswell.

I think you can justifiably question Rafa’s outlook for some league games – just look at the half-time scores of our home games last season, but I don’t think it’s the major problem as some seem to, it’s a contributing factor. I.e. I believe if you want Rafa to have an epiphany in the league, or any other manager for that mind if we were to replace Rafa, you’ll be sorely disappointed. But that’s ok, we don’t need a whole revamp in outlook or personnel anyway. We just need one or two better players to offer more consistent threat from the wide positions, so that if Torres or Gerrard are injured or rested the drop off isn’t so huge.

I guess for me the question is whether you think Rafa will be able to purchase the one or two players who will make a difference. Of course there’s the money issue for players of that calibre – but we could have got someone with the Keane cash, and Babel isn’t looking like a value purchase either. Bit of a ramble, but hopefully you get the gist.

[Owzat]

Great post Bob, and i think you're right on the "luck with the injuries front".

My argument is, can we rely on that bigger slice of luck. I'm not too sure we can...i don't believe we have to spend big, but spend we must.

Shouldn't require "luck", you need to have a squad that copes when players are injured and we don't. We shouldn't be dependant on Torres and Gerrard being fit to sustain a title challenge, the obvious solution is to have better fill-ins for when they're injured.

And it's not a very convincing argument anyway, we lost to boro (relegated) and spudz (mid-table), we drew too many against sides we have beaten in the past at home with weaker squads and before Torres was here, so it is a bit of a wishy washy excuse. How good a side do you need to beat STOKE home or away? Plenty managed it this season, we didn't. Or Hull at home, last day survivors despite losing to the mancs' reserves because Newcastle couldn't gain one point.

The rest of the team don't become poor players because Torres and Gerrard aren't in the side, the quality of replacements for them were obviously weaker, but perhaps we should base our title challenging potential on a side that doesn't include them rather than hope and pray our best XI is available enough to win enough games and therefore the title.

And we whinge about the injuries, well how about the fact that we lost ZERO key players for the entire season. It happens, most of our key players were available for 27+ games (around 3/4 of the league season)

38 Reina, Carragher, Kuyt
33 Alonso
32 Benayoun
31 Gerrard
29 Arbeloa
28 Riera
27 Mascherano
27 Babel (not key)
25 Lucas (not key starter, key squad player perhaps)

24 TORRES, Aurelio,

CBs Skrtel, Hyypia and Agger made 54 appearances between them and all are good enough that any one's absence should be made an issue of since we were never so short to need to use kids or Arbeloa. Keane played 18 despite being sold in January, even if he did come off at half-time every game! Our main choices of LB in Aurelio, Dossena and Insua managed 50 appearances between them.

Some might argue we were relatively lucky with injuries, why? Well mostly because of no serious long-term injuries, and because all the "only played" stats in the world don't count for much if players aren't out/unavailable for long periods (especially as they don't (always) show when a played was rested/suspended/unused sub etc....................

MOST MISSED LEAGUE GAMES IN A ROW*

6 Torres (CF)
4 Arbeloa (RB)
3 Gerrard (AM)
3 Riera (LM)
1 Alonso (CM)
2 Mascherano (DM)
0 Carragher (CB), Reina (GK), Kuyt (RM)


*Clear 1st choices only, Benayoun excluded as he wasn't at the start of the season so Riera included as the more accepted starting LM for msot of the season. Some may include suspension(s), LB was up for grabs most of the season as was the CB role alongside Agger.

Skrtel didn't play for 12 consecutive league games but our record was P12 W7 D4 L1 during his absence which is only a little under par for the season and no direct proof that was down to his absence - especially given Torres was sub twice and started only once during that period.